Turkey Wake-up call: Macro, Political and Equity News, 13th October

BIST added 1.09% yesterday as the positive sentiment and resulting momentum from Friday prevailed. Index opened on an uptick and gradually climbed to 1,182 level at 4PM. Some profit taking followed, but bulk of the gains were pocketed by the close. Banks performed in line with the market as their sector index perfectly matched the gain in the headline index. TCELL, TTKOM, ARCLK, TOASO, ULKER, KRDMD, and EKGYO led the gainers of non-banks while more defensive names like TUPRS, ENKAI, CCOLA, ENJSA, and ASELS were among the handful of decliners. Today, our macro agenda highlight will be the August'20 Industrial Production numbers due at 10AM local time. Bloomberg consensus +7.1% yoy based on the estimates for calendar-adjusted series and +0.0% mom based on the seasonally & calendar-adjusted series. Separately, August'20 Retail Sales Volume index compiled by TurkStat is also due 10AM. Adjusted for seasonal and working day effects, index had surged 9.5% on a sequential basis to a 7-month high of 125.2 in July as the retail sales gained further traction following the pandemic-related plunge in April-May. We foresee a sideways open with a negative bias for the BIST as concerns about vaccine tests are weighing on global risk appetite. Lira is a bit weaker with USDTRY at 7.8973 vs 7.8744 at yesterday's closing bell. U.S. futures are down 0.2% in early trades while Asian indices present a mixed picture.