Turkey Wake-up call: Macro, Political and Equity News, 1st October

BIST jumped 1.96% yesterday as the recovery in lira seemed to attract some foreign institutional buyers to a bunch of blue-chips led by banks. After an uptick open that marked the lowest point of the day, BIST100 index gradually ascended with only minor interruptions till the close. Banks outperformed with the 2.94% gain in their sector index. ASELS, SAHOL, ARCLK, KRDMD, GUBRF, CIMSA, TTRAK, BRISA, ODAS, AKSEN, and MPARK topped the non-bank gainers while Sisecam Group names, AEFES, DOAS, CCOLA, and LOGO were among the rare decliners. Today, our local macro agenda will be busy, starting with the September'20 PMI that will be announced at 10AM local time. Bloomberg consensus at 53.8, indicating a 0.9% monthly drop. The index had retreated 4.6% on a sequential basis from 56.9 in July (the highest since February'11) to 54.3 in August as the sharp recovery after the pandemic had lost some pace, still, the business conditions had remained healthy as signalled by increases in new orders, exports, output, and employment. Separately, Istanbul Chamber of Commerce will reveal its September'20 inflation numbers for metropolitan Istanbul at noon and summary minutes of the latest Monetary Policy Council meeting will be released at 2PM. BIST seems off to a positive start given increasing hopes of an agreement on a new round of fiscal stimulus in the U.S. S&P. futures are up 0.4% in early trades and the few Asian markets open for business today are trading in the green. Lira is also clinging onto yesterday's gains, trading around the 7.71 mark vs the dollar.