Turkey Wake-up call: Macro, Political and Equity News, 28th February
BIST jumped 5.46% on Friday on global markets' optimism about the war in Ukraine, reversing a good part of its losses from Thursday. Banks gained 3.47% on average, trailing behind industrial peers. TUPRS, EREGL, FROTO, TOASO, ASELS, SAHOL, KRDMD, THYAO, and ALKIM topped the gainers of the BIST100 constituents among which TCELL and TKFEN were the only decliners for the day. Today, our local macro agenda showcases 4Q21 GDP numbers due at 10AM local time. Bloomberg survey puts 4Q21 growth at +9.0% yoy and +2.1% on a seasonality and workday-adjusted basis QoQ. Separately, January'22 Foreign Trade numbers are also due at 10AM. Bloomberg consensus for monthly deficit at USD10.40bn vs preliminary data released earlier by the Ministry of Customs & Trade that are indicating a USD10.44bn (+240.7% yoy) trade gap for the month (Exports USD17.59bn (+17.3% yoy) // Imports USD28.03bn (+55.2% yoy)). Continued fighting in Ukraine and the harsh Western sanctions to isolate Russia announced over the weekend are leading to a new wave of selling in risk assets this morning. We accordingly anticipate a negative open for the BIST and the traders to focus totally on news flow related to Ukraine during the day. U.S. futures are down over 2.1% in early trades as they fully reverse the c.2.0% overnight gains after we closed on Friday while Asian bourses present a rather mixed picture. Lira is weaker with the USDTRY pair testing the 14.10 level vs 13.9020 at Friday's closing bell.
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