Turkey Wake-up call: Macro, Political and Equity News, 28th May
BIST lost 0.84% yesterday amid selling pressure during the afternoon session that was possibly related to the MSCI index reshuffle. Banks lost 1.42% on average with GARAN and HALKB underperforming while VAKBN and YKBNK held up better. ULKER, PGSUS, FROTO, HEKTS, ENJSA, AKSA, and ISMEN led the non-bank gainers while TUPRS, KCHOL, BIMAS, TKFEN, KOZAA, YATAS, and TKNSA were among the weak spots. Today, our local macro agenda involves April'21 Foreign Trade numbers due at 10AM local time. Bloomberg consensus for monthly deficit at USD3.10bn vs preliminary data released earlier by the Ministry of Customs & Trade that are indicating a USD3.12bn (-31.9% yoy) trade gap for the month (Exports USD18.77bn (+109.0% yoy) // Imports USD21.89bn (+61.4% yoy)). Separately, S&P has a scheduled review of Turkey's sovereign rating for today and any related announcements are expected to be released after markets close. The agency rates Turkey at B+, four notches below investment grade, with a stable outlook. S&P is broadly expected to affirm Turkey's rating at B+ with Stable outlook while only 1 out of 9 economists surveyed by ForeksTurkey anticipates the outlook to be raised to Positive from Neutral. We predict an uptick start for the BIST given better risk appetite in global markets while pressure on lira may create some headwinds (USDTRY around 8.53 mark vs 8.4902 at yesterday's closing bell). S&P futures are up c.0.25% in early trades and Asian stocks are mostly trading in the green.
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