Turkey Wake-up call: Macro, Political and Equity News, 28th October, Global Securities

BIST added 0.67% yesterday in its eighth consecutive day of gains as the weakness in morning hours were reversed in the afternoon. Banks took the lead with the 2.89% jump in their sector index this time, driven by strong institutional buying especially in large private lenders. BIMAS, ULKER, CCOLA, AKSA, SELEC, INDES, AKSEN, and ZRGYO topped the non-bank gainers while TCELL, ASELS, EREGL, OTKAR, TTRAK, GLYHO, and KARSN were some of the weak spots. Today, our local macro agenda highlight will be the Central Bank's quarterly inflation assessment report which will be presented by governor Sahap Kavcioglu in a press conference starting at 10:30AM local time. The bank had predicted year-end CPI at 14.1% for 2021 and at 7.8% for 2022 in its previous assessment report in July. Some upward revisions to these forecasts are almost certain given the government's updated 3-year economic programme estimates of 16.2% and 9.8% for this year and next while the latest survey of market expectations suggested 17.6% and 13.9% respective consumer inflation rates for end-2021 and 12-months ahead. Separately, Ministry of Tourism will disclose the tourist arrival numbers for September'21 at 11AM. Foreign tourist arrivals had jumped 119.4% yoy to 3.98mn in August as the pandemic-related base effects were in play, bringing the cumulative yearly arrivals to 14.07mn visitors, up 93.9% from the corresponding period of 2020. Lastly, Summary minutes of the latest Monetary Policy Council meeting will be released at 2PM. BIST seems off to a downtick start given the retreat in global bourses this morning. S&P futures are up a few points but we note the overnight losses of over 0.5% after the hour we left while Asian equity benchmarks are all trading in the red. Please note that BIST will be trading only half a day today before being closed until Monday morning for the Republic Day holiday. Accordingly, continuous trading will stop at 12:30PM local, followed by a closing auction where the uncrossing will take place at 12:35PM and trades at closing price will be executed between 12:38-12:40PM.