Turkey Wake-up call: Macro, Political and Equity News, 29th April

BIST lost 0.94% yesterday as morning session gains were reversed in afternoon trading in the past week's daily up and down pattern. Banks declined 0.52% on average as HALKB and GARAN held up better while AKBNK was weaker. AEFES, PGSUS, GSDHO, GWIND, NTHOL, ARDYZ, and DEVA led the non-bank gainers while blue-chips like TTKOM, EREGL, TUPRS, ALARK, FROTO, HEKTS, PETKM, KORDS, ARCLK, and KRDMD topped the non-bank decliners in the BIST100 space. Today, our local macro agenda is busy, starting with the March'22 Foreign Trade numbers due at 10AM local time. Bloomberg consensus for monthly deficit at USD8.20bn vs preliminary data released earlier by the Ministry of Customs & Trade that are indicating a USD8.24bn (+76.7% yoy) trade gap for the month (Exports USD22.71bn (+19.8% yoy) // Imports USD30.95bn (+31.0% yoy)). Ministry of Tourism will disclose the tourist arrival numbers for March'22 at 11AM. Foreign tourist arrivals had jumped 186.5% yoy to 1.54mn in February as the pandemic-related base effects were in play (but were still down 11.1% compared to the same month of 2020), bringing the cumulative YtD arrivals to 2.82mn visitors, up 169.4% from the corresponding period of 2021. Lastly, BRSA will release banking industry aggregates for March'22 at 2PM. Cumulative industry profits stood at TL7.16bn in March'21 and at TL18.91bn in February'22. We anticipate a positive open for the BIST given 1.6-1.8% overnight gains in the U.S. markets after we left and the strength in Asian bourses this morning despite the c.0.3% decline in S&P futures. We kindly remind that Turkish markets will be closed for 3 days in observance of the Eid holiday from Monday until Thursday next week. Accordingly, trades executed in the BIST today will settle on Friday, 06-May.