Turkey Wake-up call: Macro, Political and Equity News, 29th July

BIST closed almost unchanged yesterday as the morning and early afternoon gains were reversed after 4PM. Banks were the visible culprit with the 2.30% drop in their sector index as stellar 2Q22 results were not sufficient to sustain their recent strength for the day. KARSN, CIMSA, OTKAR, GLYHO, MAVI, AKSEN, KOZAA, and DOAS stood out among the gainers while EKGYO, OYAKC, AYDEM, DEVA, DOHOL, and ENKAI were some of the weaker non-banks in the BIST100 universe. Coming to the last trading of the month, our local macro agenda involves June'22 Foreign Trade numbers due at 10AM local time. Bloomberg consensus for monthly deficit at USD8.20bn vs preliminary data released earlier by the Ministry of Customs & Trade that are indicating a USD8.16bn (+184.3% yoy) trade gap for the month (Exports USD23.40bn (+18.5% yoy) // Imports USD31.56bn (+39.6% yoy)). This will be followed by Ministry of Tourism's tourist arrival numbers for June'22 at 11AM. Foreign tourist arrivals had jumped 308.5% yoy to 3.82mn in May as the pandemic-related base effects were in play, bringing the cumulative YtD arrivals to 11.30mn visitors, up 207.1% from the corresponding period of 2021. We predict a positive start for the BIST on the back of the upbeat sentiment in American and European markets this morning. U.S. futures are up c.0.7% on top of the 0.9-1.0% overnight gains after we left while Asian markets present a rather mixed picture.