Turkey Wake-up call: Macro, Political and Equity News, 30th April
BIST climbed 1.13% yesterday on institutional inflows in selective blue-chips. After an uptick start that marked the trough of the day, BIST100 index quickly jumped to 1,400 level and traded in a 10-point range for the rest of the session. Banks gained 1.01% on average with TSKB and GARAN outperforming and YKBNK lagging. KCHOL, PETKM, EREGL, TCELL, ARCLK, AEFES, ENJSA, MPARK, HEKTS, YATAS, and INDES stood out among the non-bank gainers while OTKAR, TTRAK, FROTO, VESTL, and ODAS led the shorter list of decliners. Coming to last trading day of the month, our local macro agenda is loaded, starting with March'21 Foreign Trade numbers due at 10AM local time. Bloomberg consensus for monthly deficit at USD4.70bn vs preliminary data released earlier by the Ministry of Customs & Trade that are indicating a USD4.69bn (-14.2% yoy) trade gap for the month (Exports USD18.99bn (+42.2% yoy) // Imports USD23.68bn (+25.8% yoy)). This wll be followed by the Ministry of Tourism's tourist arrival numbers for March'21 at 11AM. Foreign tourist arrivals had plunged 69.0% yoy to 0.54mn in February, bringing the cumulative yearly arrivals to 1.05mn visitors, down 70.2% from 2020. Lastly, BRSA will release banking industry aggregates for March'21 at 2PM. Cumulative industry profits stood at only TL0.22bn in March'20 and at TL4.95bn in February'21. BIST seems headed for a slight negative start given the pull-back in global equity markets. U.S. futures are down c.0.4% in early trades but we note the 0.4-0.7% overnight increases in main indices after the time we left. Asian indices are almost all trading in the red. Lira is also a bit weaker with USDTRY pair at around 8.24 level vs 8.2190 at yesterday's closing bell.
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