Turkey Wake-up call: Macro, Political and Equity News, 30th November
BIST lost 1.02% on Friday in profit taking, but managed to eke out a 0.36% gain for the whole week. After an uptick open on Friday and testing of 1,350 levels, BIST100 index spent a good part of the day in positive territory, but sellers took control after 4:30PM and pushed the market to a negative close. Banks retreated 1.65% on average amid pressure on YKBNK and TSKB. EKGYO, PETKM, VESTL, KORDS, AKCNS, SELEC, and DOCO stood out as leaders of non-banks while FROTO, OTKAR, SAHOL, KCHOL, SISE, AEFES, THYAO, PGSUS, and KOZAA were among the weak spots. Coming to this morning, our macro calendar is packed, starting with the 3Q20 GDP numbers due at 10AM local time. Bloomberg survey puts 3Q20 growth at +4.8% yoy and +14.0% on a seasonality and workday-adjusted basis QoQ. Separately, October'20 Foreign Trade numbers are also due 10AM. Bloomberg consensus for monthly deficit at USD2.40bn, bang in line with the preliminary data released earlier by the Ministry of Customs & Trade indicating a USD2.40bn (+35.7% yoy) trade gap for the month. Lastly, BRSA will release banking industry aggregates for October'20 at 2PM local time. Cumulative industry profits stood at TL5.38bn in October'19 and at TL3.31bn in September'20. BIST seems headed for a slight negative start given the softer mood in global markets while lira is stable with USDTRY pair cruising around the 7.84 mark. U.S. futures are down 0.6% in early trades and Asian markets are mostly trading in the red.
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