Turkey Wake-up call: Macro, Political and Equity News, 30th October
BIST lost 2.22% during the half-day trading before the Republic Day holiday on Wednesday. Index opened on a downtick and descended almost uninterruptedly until the close at mid-day. Banks fared relatively better with the 0.55% gain in their sector index. ASELS, ENKAI, GOODY, and ALCTL were among the handful non-bank gainers while EREGL, TCELL, ARCLK, THYAO, PGSUS, CCOLA, AEFES, PETKM, BIMAS, MGROS, TOASO, MAVI, and VESTL topped the long list of decliners. Coming to this morning, our local macro agenda involves September'20 Foreign Trade numbers due at 10AM local time. Bloomberg consensus for monthly deficit at USD4.90bn vs preliminary data released earlier by the Ministry of Customs & Trade that are indicating a USD4.88bn (+192.7% yoy) trade gap for the month. This will be followed by the Ministry of Tourism's tourist arrival numbers for September'20 at 11AM. Foreign tourist arrivals had plunged 71.2% yoy to 1.81mn in August, bringing the cumulative YtD arrivals to 7.26mn visitors, down 76.6% from the corresponding period of 2019. Lastly, BRSA will release the banking industry aggregates for September'20 at 2PM. Cumulative industry profits stood at TL3.09bn in September'19 and at TL3.97bn in August'20. BIST is headed for a negative open given Wednesday's rout in global markets after Turkey closed. U.S. futures are down 0.9% this morning on top of 2.4-2.9% losses they suffered during the past two days and Asian indices are almost all trading in the red. USDTRY is also testing new highs, hovering above the 8.32 mark vs 8.2806 at the time of Wednesday's BIST closing.
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