Turkey Wake-up call: Macro, Political and Equity News, 30th September
BIST gained 0.59% yesterday after a day entirely spent in the positive territory. Benchmark BIST100 index tested the 1,396 level multiple times, but failed to hop above it and had given back some of intraday gains by the close. Banks outperformed with a 1.58% average gain as GARAN and TSKB led the pack. BIMAS, SISE, AEFES, GUBRF, BRISA, AKSA, and TRGYO topped the non-bank gainers while DOAS, TAVHL, KOZAA, IPEKE, DOHOL, and TOASO were some of the fewer weak spots. Coming to the last trading day of the month, our local macro agenda involves August'21 Foreign Trade numbers due at 10AM local time. Bloomberg consensus for monthly deficit at USD4.30bn vs preliminary data released earlier by the Ministry of Customs & Trade that are indicating a USD4.31bn (-31.7% yoy) trade gap for the month (Exports USD18.91bn (+51.8% yoy) // Imports USD23.22bn (+23.8% yoy)). Separately, summary minutes of the latest Monetary Policy Council meeting will be released at 2PM. We predict a sideways start with a positive bias for the BIST given the strength in S&P futures this AM while the weakness in lira (USDTRY at 8.90 levels vs 8.8778 at yesterday's closing bell, but off the overnight high of almost 8.96) may create some headwinds.
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