Turkey Wake up call: Macro, Political and Equity News, 31st August
BIST slipped 0.76% on Friday as the late afternoon weakness erased small gains from the morning hours. Banks lost 0.91% on average amid pressure on YKBNK and VAKBN while AKBNK held up better. Automotive stocks, KRDMD, VESTL, ULKER, GOZDE, GUBRF, ZOREN, and TRCAS were among the rare gainers while KCHOL, SAHOL, BIMAS, EKGYO, KOZAL, ARCLK, and EGEEN stood out as weakest non-banks. Coming to last day of the month, our macro agenda highlight will be the 2Q20 GDP numbers due 10AM local time. Bloomberg survey puts 2Q20 growth at -10.1.% yoy and -11.7% on a seasonality and workday-adjusted basis QoQ. Separately, July'20 Foreign Trade numbers are also due at 10AM. Preliminary data released earlier by the Ministry of Customs & Trade indicate a USD2.74bn (-16.8% yoy) trade gap for the month (Exports USD15.01bn (-5.8% yoy) // Imports USD17.76bn (-7.7% yoy)). We anticipate a sideways open with a positive bias for the BIST given supportive sentiment abroad while regional tensions and lira volatility create headwinds for Turkish stocks.
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