Turkey Wake-up call: Macro, Political and Equity News, 4th May
BIST jumped 1.67% yesterday as the institutional inflows propped up the market along with the gains in European peers. After an uptick start that marked the lowest point of the day, the BIST100 index quickly jumped to the 1,405-1,410 range where it spent a good part of the day. The benchmark gained further traction after 4PM and closed at its daily peak. Banks added 1.93% on average with ISCTR and AKBNK outperforming. Aviation stocks, TUPRS, KCHOL, SISE, KRDMD, HEKTS, INDES, TKNSA, KORDS, AEFES, and ISMEN topped the long list of gainers while EREGL, FROTO, TOASO, TURSG, and GOZDE were among the rare decliners. Today, our local macro agenda involves Central Bank's April'21 real effective FX rate due at 2:30PM local time. The CPI-based index is expected to soften from the 65.71 mark for the previous month given ~1.8% depreciation of lira vs the EUR+USD currency basket surpassing the 1.68% headline CPI print for April. Separately, Treasury will issue 13-month discount bonds and reissue 4-year CPI-linkers in double domestic borrowing auctions today. Domestic redemption for the week is only TL1.14bn while the Treasury has already raised TL1.32bn in the auction held yesterday, but we note the TL10.58bn of redemptions coming due next week for when there are no scheduled borrowing auctions. BIST seems off to a flattish start given mixed signals from global markets while lira is a bit weaker vs the greenback (USDTRY at 8.2750 levels vs 8.2619 at yesterday's closing bell). U.S. futures are down c.0.2% while Asian markets present a mixed picture.
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