Turkey Wake-up call: Macro, Political and Equity News, 4th November

BIST climbed 1.51% yesterday ahead of the closely-watched U.S. elections as a late afternoon rally led by banks erased earlier losses. There were speculations of an imminent rate hike by the Central Bank while lira also recovered bulk of its earlier losses. Banks were up 3.74% on average with YKBNK and GARAN leading while TSKB finally yielded to profit taking. KOZAL, AEFES, SAHOL, KCHOL, EGEEN, TTRAK, AKSEN, MPARK, and AGHOL topped the non-bank gainers while FROTO, KRDMD, PGSUS, ASELS, TAVHL, BRISA, and TURSG were among the weak spots. Today, our local macro agenda involves Central Bank's October'20 real effective FX rate due at 2:30PM local time. The CPI-based index is expected to decline further from the 62.21 mark - lowest ever print in the series dating back to 1994 - for the previous month given ~7.9% depreciation of lira vs the currency basket dwarfing the 2.13% headline CPI print for October. Eyes will be abroad as global markets are holding their breath for the outcome of American elections and early gains of c.0.8% in S&P futures and continued strength most Asian markets will likely prop up BIST to a higher open. Lira remains jittery though, with the USDTRY pair around the 8.50 mark vs 8.4674 at yesterday's closing bell.