Turkey Wake-up call: Macro, Political and Equity News, 5th April

BIST added another 2.65% yesterday in the broad-based move (with 85 gainers vs 11 decliners among the BIST100 constituents) that extended its recent winning streak to the fifth consecutive day. Banks joined the rally with their 3.22% jump amid strength in AKBNK and ISCTR. TUPRS, SISE, TOASO, FROTO, Koza Group stocks, EKGYO, EREGL, ULKER, GUBRF, and NTHOL led the non-bank gainers for the day while the grocery chains, KARSN, CIMSA, DOAS, and ISMEN stood out among the rare decliners. Today, our local macro agenda involves the Central Bank's March'22 real effective FX rate due at 2:30PM local time. The CPI-based index is expected to remain broadly-unchanged from the 54.78 mark for previous month given ~5.1% depreciation of lira vs the currency basket that had been more or less in line with the 5.46% headline CPI print for March. We anticipate BIST to open with a slight positive bias given its recent momentum and activation of a new "strategic mechanism" to ease the differences and seek further cooperation between Turkey and the U.S. S&P futures are down a few points in early trades as they partially reverse c.0.3% overnight gains after we left while Asian markets present a mixed picture.