26th March 2018 - Has the Bund turned bullish?
Fundamentally, the sell-off seen to date in equity markets is only a taste of what could happen if a trade war breaks out.
Investors are clearly already getting nervous, indeed the DJEUROSTOXX50 was already moving lower when the US S&P was still making new highs.
Unless the threat of a trade was is quickly reversed, there is clear scope for the bund market to trade higher given the particular vulnerablilites of the Europeans.
Chart-wise, the picture remains long and medium-term bearish for the moment. But within that scenario there is ample scope to trade higher - at least as far as 161 before the bear case is negated.
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