Seven Days Ahead Multi Asset Technical Strategies 3rd July 2018

This week's Multi-Asset Technical Strategies is attached.

CURRENCIES:

There is scope for a currency bounce and even if it is only short-covering it could be substantial - certainly in the case of the Euro, and possibly the Sterling.
But beware: in both cases the possibility of a further breakdown is clearly there too. So it is complex at the moment and our levels should be closely watched.

STOCKS:

We still like the S&P but realise that there is a clear weakening in the structure of the bull market. The EuroStoxx is even more weakly set up. So it looks vulnerable (if not a clear sell) in all time frames, as does the Nikkei. The FTSE is less clearly structured, but the declining parallel channel within which it has been drifting since mid May needs closely watching in case of a breakout.

BONDS

We now have cause to doubt the long-term breakdown of the TNote. It looks as if the long-term bull trend diagonal is being supportive for the while. But there is no likely rally yet in prospect. On the other hand, the Bund and to a lesser extent the Gilt are both poised to rally if short and medium-term structures close to fruition are completed.

COMMODITIES:

Oil has bounced and looks terrifically well-set in all time frames. There is a short-term challenge to overcome the recent high in the day chart, but if achieved, that will be a powerful bull trigger. Our bear call on the Gold has been proved right. But now, sitting on good support in the short and medium-term term the market is vulnerable to a short-covering rally unless there is a fresh bear stimulus.


For urgent specific inquiries you are welcome, as always, to contact us at any time.

est regards,
Mark

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Mark Sturdy
Director
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