What is driving the Bund up?
​As 2016 drew to a close the bull market in government bonds, including the Bund, was widely considered to be over due to two factors:
The election of Donald Trump as US President and his economic plans to ramp up spending and cut tax meaning a bigger budget deficit, higher inflation and higher interest rates, and
The improving performance of economic activity in the US, but also in the Euro zone which fed strongly into equity markets, resulting in several global equity markets making new highs. By December 2016 the Bund had sold off by nine big figures and traders were anticipating the start of a full-scale bear market. But it never happened. In fact, the Bund steadied and slowly staged a recovery which to date has seen the market recover by around five big figures.
What has changed? The main answer is political risk.
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