Report
SMI
Lane Dusserre

Short-Term (days/weeks) : likely modest weakness now for EEM, then higher

Short-Term (days/weeks) : likely modest weakness next week, then higher
EEM was slightly higher last week, breaching resistance at summer 2023 price lows as Daily OB/OS momentum turned positive.
At the end of the week, EEM turned down at resistance from the August high ; Daily OB/OS momentum was modestly overbought.
EEM looks likely to retest February 2022 trend support next week, but the new DJIA/NYSE ITI analog model suggests renewed strength for key US equity indices from late October: see chart, page 2 and below. This looks likely for EEM too. See Daily OB/OS Charts, attached, page 9.
Intermediate-Term (weeks/months): negative, but likely low next week
GEM intermediate breadth and momentum indicators were almost all higher week-on-week at the close on Thursday, including Hang Seng, India, Taiwan, Korea and Singapore Intermediate Term Indicators and Money Flow of the Average Hang Seng, India and Singapore Stock. Money Flow of the Average Taiwan Stock was unchanged.
Indicators are mostly turning up in moderately oversold territory: India indicators are turning up at neutral/modestly overbought and Hang Seng indicators are turning up in very oversold territory.
GEM equity indices were mostly higher week-on-week at the close on Thursday, including MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM), Hang Seng, India, HSCEI, Shanghai, Taiwan, Korea, Jakarta, ASX, Mexico, Bovespa, Johannesburg, Philippines and Singapore. Indices were mostly sharply higher; Turkey fell.
See Weekly Charts, attached.
Mostly higher GEM intermediate indicators accompanied by higher EEM suggests an intermediate buy signal (weeks/months) for GEM equity indices. US DJIA/NYSE ITI analogs point to modest weakness next week, then a new rally to mid-November at a minimum: see analog chart, page 21. This looks like a reasonable scenario for EEM too.
The intermediate outlook for GEM equities (weeks/months) remains negative, but likely low next week.
Provider
SMI
Analysts
Lane Dusserre

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