TURKEY MARKET OUTLOOK - 1Q19 Earnings Preview
The first quarter’s end was marked by major volatility on the back of a decline in the value of TRY and climbing interest rates. While all key indicators pointed to q-q improvement for averages, the base for most operational P/L items, the period-end figures displayed a worsening trend compared to end-2018. We expect banks to have weaker results than non-financials (both y-y and q-q) due to lackluster loan originations, softer NIMs predominantly on lower CPI linker proceeds and surging provision expenses on the impact of a depreciating TRY on FX receivables as well as continued problematic loan inflows.
Among non-financials, consumer staples companies and the ones with FX income streams top the list from a y-y EBITDA evolution point of view. We believe real estate, construction, steel sector companies and importers will be the companies with the largest y-y EBITDA erosion.
TEB Investment equity research analysts and strategist team consists of 8 analysts with an average finance sector experience of 15 years and special focus on international investors.
With our 6 equity research analysts we cover 93 companies across 21 sectors, reflecting 80% of the total market capitalization of all BIST companies and 86% of the BIST100 companies. Our strategy team provides in depth top-down and bottom-up market views with insight on FX and bond markets by publishing sectoral and strategic reports both in English and Turkish.
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