TURKEY MARKET OUTLOOK - Adding further risk
We maintain long term upbeat market call with 129k one-year forward looking BIST100 target. It is worth highlighting that the 25% upside is driven through a risk free rate (RFR) of 17%, while the longest end 10y bond yield is now below 13%.
We are further increasing bank overweight positioning to 8% above BIST100 weight from 5% reaching an aggregate weighting of 33%. We are adding Akbank to our model portfolio taking into account the bank’s solid capitalization that provides room to lever up and sector low loan-to-deposit ratio of 92% that can provide liquidity when opportunities arise.
On the non-financial front, we are adding Tekfen and Torunlar REIC. Tekfen is trading at 75% P/E discount to global contracting peers and the company has prospective new contracts that can support the backlog in the next couple of quarters. Torunlar REIT is supported by recovering housing sales on falling mortgage rates as well as the wide 77% discount to current NAV. We are removing Anadolu Cam, Aviva, Hektas, TSKB and Koza Gold from our Key Ideas portfolio: all these companies are being taken out due to our desire to cash in profits.
TEB Investment equity research analysts and strategist team consists of 8 analysts with an average finance sector experience of 15 years and special focus on international investors.
With our 6 equity research analysts we cover 93 companies across 21 sectors, reflecting 80% of the total market capitalization of all BIST companies and 86% of the BIST100 companies. Our strategy team provides in depth top-down and bottom-up market views with insight on FX and bond markets by publishing sectoral and strategic reports both in English and Turkish.
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