Rapid Nutrition PLC (ALRPD.PA): Eyes on Double 11 – PO €0.50…!
>Trading Call. We are maintaining our BUY HIGH RISK rating on Rapid Nutrition PLC (ALRPD.PA) and our PO of €0.50, based on a discounted gross profit (DGP) model using a 9.0% WACC and a 40.0x terminal value, which represents the mid-point of the peer range.>Eyes on Double 11. The Double 11 (Singles Day) shopping festival is set to run from October 9 through November 11, spanning 34 days—making it the world’s longest shopping event. Over this period, we forecast GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) growth of 9.5%, reaching ¥1.6 trillion ($220.7 billion), supported by an extended campaign period, the first full year of AI integration, and the inclusion of 20 international markets, which should help drive incremental demand.
>Wellness Market Growth. Since 2023, the health and supplements category has seen strong Double 11 momentum, with GMV projected to reach ¥185.8 billion in 2025, up 13.3% YoY and reflecting a CAGR of 11.96% over 2023–2025. Following the 34-day campaign, we estimate the segment will represent 11.8% of total GMV (¥1.6 trillion), up from 11.0% in 2023 and 11.4% in 2024.
>HK Positioning. During Double 11, the company is driving conversions aggressively with a gift-with-purchase campaign across ByteDance Ltd. (Douyin/TikTok) and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA/9988.HK, Tmall), supported by KOL livestreams and targeted social media blitzes during peak traffic. The SystemLS brand has rolled out in 9 of 13 GreenPrice stores in Hong Kong, boosting offline visibility and reinforcing Rapid Nutrition’s omnichannel footprint. Early sales are strong, with rapid sell-through in just two weeks. The retailer is considering moving to a regular monthly ordering cycle, highlighting potential for sustained demand momentum and further expanding brand exposure across both online and offline channels. Signaling strong growth potential.
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