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Pakistan Strategy: Pakistan Outlook 2021 based on Topline Poll

  • Topline Securities conducted a poll during the first week of Dec-2020 of over 50 top funds managers and corporates, asking range of questions on their expectations of the economy and the equity market for the upcoming year.
  • Around 65% of the survey were fund managers, where the remaining participants belonged to the Pakistan corporate sector from sectors like Banks, Oil and Gas, Cements, Steel, Autos etc.
  • The excerpts of the survey were published in our detailed report titled ‘Pak Strategy: A year of economic stabilization, Index likely to reach 52,500’ published on December 10, 2020.
  • The survey participants largely expect economy to consolidate/stabilize in the upcoming year. Few of the key observations were:
  • There are no changes expected in the Pakistan political setup in 2021
  • Pakistan is expected to re-enter the IMF program in 2021
  • GDP growth is expected between 1.1-2.0% in FY21
  • PKR/USD is likely to close between 160-165 by Dec-2021
  • Inflation is anticipated to average between 8.5-9.0% in FY21
  • Monetary tightening is likely to begin in May-2021, with an anticipated increase of 75-100bps in the Policy Rate during 2021
  • KSE-100 index is likely to close between 45k-50k by Dec-2021
  • Net foreign corporate selling is likely to continue in 2021
  • Cements and Banks are likely to outperform during 2021

E&Ps and Autos are expected to underperform during 2021

Topline Securities Limited
Topline Securities Limited

Topline Securities is one of the fastest-growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong Equity Brokerage, Economic/ Equity Research, Commodity Trading and Corporate Finance & Advisory functions.

Topline Securities has been endowed with numerous awards by renowned international financial organizations. The highlights of which consists of the award for ‘Best Local Brokerage House of Pakistan’ by Asiamoney Brokers Poll (the largest Asia-focused equity services provider poll) in 2016 and ‘Best Equity Brokerage House’ by CFA Society Pakistan in 2015.

Previously, Topline Securities held the title for ‘Best Brokerage House’ for 4 consecutive years (2011-2014) by Asiamoney Brokers Poll. Other awards include the ‘Best Salesperson’ award by Asiamoney for 6 consecutive years (2011-2016), the ‘Arabia Fast Growth 500’ award and ‘Pakistan Fast Growth 100’ award in 2012 and 2013 by AllWorld Network.

JCR-VIS, a credit rating agency providing independent rating services in Pakistan has assigned initial rating of “A-2” for short term and “A” for long term to Topline Securities. Topline Securities is registered as Underwriter, Book Runner and Research Entity with Securities & Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP).

Syed Atif Zafar

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