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Breakfast Report - 12 December 2022

• According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria's total trade fell by 10.7% q/q in Q3’22 to ₦11.6 trillion due to lower export receipts. Total exports fell by 19.9% q/q in Q3 because of a 21.2% q/q decline in crude oil exports. The decline in crude exports was driven by crude theft and shutdowns of key oil infrastructure for repairs. The moderation in exports and slight uptick in imports contributed to a lower balance of trade - ₦269 billion in Q3'22, an 86.3% q/q decrease from the trade balance in Q2'22. Spain, India, and France were the top three export partners, while China, the Netherlands, and India were the top three import partners. In Q4’22, we anticipate a higher trade balance as oil production increases due to gains from the pipeline surveillance project. On the other hand, limited foreign exchange supply might dampen imports.
• Equity: We expect another round of mixed trading sessions this week, amid lukewarm activity.
• Fixed Income: This week, the bond market should trade on a muted note as investors await the outcome of today’s auction. On the other hand, given the relatively decent liquidity figures, we expect bullish activity to dominate the NTB spectrum to open the week.
• Commodities: Prices of Commodities on the AFEX Commodities Exchange returned mixed results. Maize declined by 7.00%, Soybeans by 8.61%, and Paddy rice fell by 4.23%. Whereas Sorghum increased by 2.30%, Cocoa by 18.75% and Cashew by 0.17%. The price of other commodities remained unchanged. Year-to-date, Paddy Rice, Sorghum, Cocoa, remained positive at 32.54%, 46.95% and 54.05% respectively. While Maize and Soybeans fell 4.41% and 26.25% YTD. The ACI remained unchanged week-to-week at 455.7 points, while the AEI rose by 4.95%. Year-to-date, the ACI and AEI have returned 5.89% and 21.97%, respectively.