EUR 117.94 For Business Accounts Only

Breakfast Report - 31st May 2016

• According to the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s Q1’16 trade declined 38% y/y on the back of declines in both total imports and exports, down 16% y/y and 52% y/y respectively. At N2.7 trillion, the total value of Nigeria’s merchandise trade over the 3-month period is the lowest quarterly recording since the second quarter in 2009. On a quarterly basis, trade value was down 23% largely driven by the 35% and 8% respective declines in both exports and imports. Whilst we note that there was a marginal rise in non-crude oil exports (11.3% q/q), total exports was dragged by a whopping 47% q/q fall in Crude oil exports (65% of total exports). Overall, Nigeria’s trade balance turned negative in Q1’16, with a N184.1 billion deficit. Q2’16 trade numbers are not expected to be any better given that oil production volumes have been further depressed due to incessant militant attacks on major oil pipelines which have cut Nigeria’s oil output to an estimated 1.1 million bbls per day. Also, given that FX supply has remained tight through most of the quarter, imports will most likely be further constrained in Q2’16.

• The Nigerian bourse climbed significantly into positive territory, posting its best weekly performance for the year as investors cheered the MPC’s decision to embrace a flexible foreign exchange regime. Overall, the NSE ASI climbed 659bps w/w, putting Year to date return (+0.91%) in positive territory for the first time in the year.