Nigeria 2017 Macro Outlook: Policy in the Limelight
​2016 took Nigeria into unchartered waters, with the country likely to have suffered its first full-year recession in two decades. Whilst rising inflation and foreign exchange market rigidity constrained monetary policy, a delayed passage of the 2016 “Budget of Change†limited the impact of fiscal policy during the year. Many determining themes from the last year are likely to filter through to 2017. Redress of the foreign exchange (FX) market, security of oil production infrastructure, and the efficiency of budget implementation will play significant roles in shaping the year. With 2016 providing a low base, we forecast GDP growth of 1.8% for 2017, supported by expansionary fiscal policy, relatively strong growth in agriculture, and an improvement in oil production.
- Benchmark Brent crude price to average within range of $55/bbl - $60/bbl
- Nigeria Real GDP growth expected to rebound to 1.8%
- Headline inflation to average 13.3%
- Exchange rate rigidity to continue with mild depreciation
- Budget deficit expected to reach 2.2% of GDP amidst spending ramp up
- Slight monetary easing expected during the year, 13% MPR by year-end
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