Nigeria
Consumer Goods Sector                                                Â
H1'17
Earnings Preview                                        Â
Consumer Goods companies are
set for significant recovery in 2017, benefitting from an all-round improvement
in the state of the economy as well as easy comparables from the previous year.
Q1’17 earnings already prove a testament to this, with most reported earnings
in the sector beating Analysts’ estimates. Flattered by the particularly low
base in Q2’16 (naira devalued by 42% in June 2016) and also reflecting product
price increases implemented in the latter part of FY’16, we expect even
stronger y/y growth figures in Q2’17.                      Â
With economic arrows
indicating a slow but steady recovery, the operating environment in Q2’17 has
been a tailwind for companies. Particularly for the import-reliant
manufacturing sector, this comeback has been supported by better supply of a
much needed lifeline – foreign exchange. Amidst the improved FX liquidity, the
naira has appreciated across free trading FX market segments in Q2’17.                                        Â
Supported by continued
aggressive cost management and moderating inflationary pressures (albeit
sticky), we expect operating costs to remain contained in Q2’17. We also expect
the improvement in gas supply to support costs within the quarter amidst likely
reduction in the use of the more expensive alternative fuel – LPFO. Whilst we
expect the aforementioned to bode well for margins, one pressure point for
earnings of more leveraged Consumer Goods companies remains elevated interest
expenses.                                          Â
With an early report from UNILEVER verifying our positive outlook for the sector (PAT 35% above Consensus, share price up 16% following release), we expect the Consumer Goods Index to receive a boost following the releases (NSE Consumer Goods up 11% ytd vs. 28% for NSE ASI). We forecast an average 5% and 37% q/q growth in top and bottom line for our Consumer Goods Coverage.         Â
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