FREE

Nigeria FY'22 Trade Report - Trade emerges from pandemic lows

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), total trade in the fourth quarter of 2022 was $11.7 trillion (+0.1% y/y), with total exports at ₦6.3 trillion and imports at ₦5.3 trillion. Spain, the Netherlands, and India were the top three export partners, while China, Belgium, and India were the top three countries from which Nigerian imports originated. On an annual basis, total trade flows increased to ₦52.3 trillion in 2022, a 31.8% increase over 2021.  The increase was due to a 41.7% rise in exports, while imports surged by 22.5% in 2022. Due to the surge in exports, Nigeria recorded a balance of trade surplus for the first time in 3 years (FY’22: ₦1.2 trillion)

Recovery in oil production could support exports
Elevated oil prices, particularly as China's demand returns to the market, as well as a recovery in oil output, may shape export earnings in 2023. Nigeria's oil production (excluding condensates) increased to 1.25 mb/d in January (Dec'22: 1.23 mb/d), and it increased even more in February to 1.30 mb/d. This invariably means that recovery in Nigeria's oil sector could be underway owing to the government’s effort to curb oil theft and safeguard oil infrastructure. We also note that China eased its strict Covid restriction towards the end of 2022; this could boost bilateral trade as China remains one of the country’s top trading partners.