NIGERIA GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - Resilience amid numerous woes
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria's economy grew by 3.10% y/y in 2022 (Vetiva: 2.84% y/y). This follows a 3.40% y/y expansion in 2021. The slightly moderated growth in 2022 was due to a deeper contraction in the industrials sector, a faster growth in the services sector, and slower growth in agriculture.
In Q1’22, the solid growth outcome of 3.11% was driven by the previous year’s low base (Q1’21: 0.51% y/y). Growth slowed in subsequent quarters, as post-COVID recovery began in Q2’21. Thus, growth slowed to 3.54% y/y in Q2’22 (down from 5.01% y/y in Q2’21), 2.25% y/y in Q3'22 (down from 4.03% y/y in Q3’21), and 3.52% y/y in Q4’22 (down from 3.98% y/y in Q4’21).
In Q4'22, the expansion was 76bps higher than our in-house estimate (2.76% y/y), due to a strong rebound in manufacturing (from a contraction in Q3’22). The major contributors to overall output were the Telecommunications (ICT), Trade, and Financial services sectors.
Agricultural Sector: Flooding dampens output
Starting off with the agricultural sector, crop production, which accounts for over 90% of total agricultural output, expanded by 2.02% y/y in 2022 (2021: 2.27% y/y). The weaker performance can be linked to the flooding incidents, which disrupted farming activities in food-producing regions.
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