NIGERIA PMI - 2017 rounds off with record-high PMI
2017 rounds off with record-high PMI
Rounding off a strong final quarter of 2017, Nigeria’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors came in at record highs in December – registering at 59.3 and 62.1 respectively, compared to 55.9 and 57.6 in the previous month. Even accounting for the seasonal effect of stronger economic activity in December, the month’s PMI readings remain very impressive, especially considering the disruptions to fuel supply at the end of the year which we would have expected to take a toll on economic activity during the month.
We would be unsurprised if some of the recent fuel supply disruptions had an adverse effect on economic activities at the start of 2018. Overall, however, we are relatively bullish about the economy in the first quarter of the year. Q1’18 indicators will benefit from a high inflation base (Q1’17 average inflation: 17.9% y/y) and a low GDP base (Q1’17 GDP growth: -0.9% y/y) from Q1’17, added to ongoing fiscal stimulus and a favorable external environment. We forecast GDP growth of 2.4% y/y for the quarter.
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