NIGERIA PMI - Another steady expansion in March
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI) for the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors recorded stronger readings in March, expanding 56.7 and 57.2, compared to 56.3 and 56.1 in February. The expansion in the manufacturing sector was notable as it marked a full-year (April 2017-March 2018) of growth in industrial activity, and the average PMI reading for the quarter (56.8) was also the highest recorded within that period, indicating accelerating recovery in the sector. Likewise, non-manufacturing PMI came in more robust in March, bolstered by sturdier growth in Business Activity (55.6 to 58.7) and New Orders (53.7 to 55.8) during the period. Public Administration (87.5), Utilities (70.3), and Finance & Insurance (67.0) saw the largest improvements whilst construction declined marginally (49.7) following three straight months of expansions.
PMI readings continue to point to a strengthening economy, though the absence of strong policy impetus is a threat to economic consolidation. In particular, underwhelming fiscal performance and tight monetary policy may constrain growth. We expect Q1’18 GDP to register at 3.4% y/y, driven mainly by oil production recovery and a weak base from Q1’17 when Nigeria was still in recession.
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