October 2019 Inflation Review - Headline Inflation Prints at 11.61% y/y
Food prices soar amidst border closure
The National Bureau of Statistics has released CPI data for October 2019, with headline inflation rising further to 11.61% y/y (September: 11.24% y/y), above
our estimate of 11.35% y/y. While food inflation increased to 14.09% y/y (September:13.51% y/y), core inflation moderated to 8.88% y/y (September: 8.94% y/y).
Border closure continues to pressure food prices
Following the trend that we had seen in the last month, headline inflation continued to soar from 11.24% in September to print at 11.61% in October. This was buoyed by a significant increase in food inflation as core inflation slowed. We note that this impact on food inflation is a result of land border closure which
was fully implemented in September, leading to continual increases in the prices of major food items such as rice and frozen meats. Although the harvest season
is in progress, it is evident that its effect has been blunted by the weightier effect of the dearth in imported food.
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