​Earnings miss on elevated interest charge
UACN recorded an impressive 41% y/y revenue growth in the first quarter of 2017, outperforming Vetiva estimate by 17%. This growth was majorly driven by price increases implemented in the later parts of 2016 and better volume performances across some operating divisions. Cost pressures in Q1’17 remained a challenge for the Conglomerate as price increases were unable to save Q1’17 gross margin from a 598bps y/y contraction to 17% (Vetiva estimate: 21%). With this, gross profit came in at a mild 4% y/y growth at ₦4.1 billion. Earnings took further beating from a significant 125% y/y rise in interest charge to ₦1.8 billion.
Coupled with a lower contribution from UPDC’s Real Estate Investment Trust, Q1’17 PAT came in 58% below our estimate, down 54% y/y to ₦606 million. We revise our FY’17 net interest expense estimate to ₦4.6 billion (Previous: ₦1.8 billion; Q1’17: ₦1.2 billion). However, given that we remain optimistic on slightly better input costs this year and following an upward revision to our revenue growth estimate (from 10.0% to 11.4%), our FY’17 EPS estimate comes to ₦1.74 (Previous: ₦2.17). Our Target Price is also revised lower to ₦28.54 (Previous: ₦30.91).
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