Continued Execution Across All Projects; Cash Flow Growing; Multiple Potential Catalysts Ahead
Recent update highlights a proven and replicable cash-generating business model. In the two-plus years since its founding, Base Carbon has successfully sourced, invested, and developed three projects that are on time, on budget, and are either producing credits or will be in the coming quarters. Credit sales from Vietnam have already generated ~$18 million in cash, Rwanda has produced its first credits, and the Indian ARR project is on track to deliver its first credits in early 2025. Potential pricing upside on credits from Rwanda and Vietnam projects. The Rwanda project has generated its first credits, which have a Corresponding Adjustment (CA) label from carbon registry Verra. The company noted that indicative pricing for the credits with a CA is well in excess of 2x the price it received for the initial fixed offtake credits in Vietnam. Moreover, discussions are underway for the Vietnam project to receive a CA label, which would provide significant upside on the second phase and the potential expansion of that project. The current market cap of Base Carbon is ~$40 million; the Vietnam project alone will deliver cash of ~$29.1 million in the next 12 months. As part of its offtake agreement with Citigroup, YTD Base Carbon has recently received $12.5 million in cash and expects to receive another ~$16.1 million in the next 12 months. In addition to Vietnam, the first credits from the Rwanda project (~700K credits with a CA) are being marketed, the India project is expected to produce its first credits in 2025, and then there are still credits scheduled to be produced from the existing projects in the future (as well as options on additional credits and project expansions). The company has no debt, had $1.6 million in cash at YE23 (not including the recent $12.5 million from Citigroup), and minimal capital commitments for Vietnam and India (Rwanda has been fully funded). Buybacks to continue. Since June 2022, the company has repurchased about ~8% of peak shares outstanding (~9.3 million shares) through its Normal Course Issuer Bid that was initially authorized in June 2022. We do not see any need for Base Carbon to raise money and management has been very clear that it has no need or plans to do so. We expect that the company will remain active in repurchasing shares (it still has authorization to buy back ~6 million more shares) and renew its repurchase program at the annual meeting in June of this year. We see multiple potential catalysts in the coming months. These include: (1) the sale of Rwanda credits with the CA; (2) additional cash from Vietnam; (3) further progress with the India project; (4) the potential for a CA label for the Vietnam project; (5) additional buybacks; and (6) the STX Partnership launch. STX partnership offers the potential to scale the market for carbon removals. Base Carbon has continued to work with STX Group (LOI signed in December 2023) to develop a carbon development fund to allow institutional investors to participate in a curated portfolio of high-quality carbon removal projects. The company expects to launch the product in 2H24, which we see as helping to grow the market for carbon removal and at the same time diversify and expand the opportunities for Base Carbon to leverage its expertise, sourcing, and platform as well as to potentially deploy capital as principal into the vehicle itself.