Five Trends in Technology for 2024
After two years of working through the excessive growth witnessed in 2020, the $6 trillion e-commerce market is expected to accelerate modestly to ~11% in 2024. Major secular trends such as mobile commerce (m-commerce) and buy now, pay later (BNPL) should help drive the market forward. Digital advertising is expected to grow 9% to $719 billion, with a potential major boost from the fast-growing free ad-supported streaming television (FAST) as major players such as Netflix, Amazon, and Google introduced new content and services to draw increased consumer adoption. Driven by the ongoing move from paper to plastic to digital, it appears non-cash payment volumes are expected to grow just over 9% in 2023 to $22.8 trillion. One key development we are watching is pay-by-bank (PBB), which could emerge as a disruptive presence in the market. Growth in enterprise software spending is expected to continue to accelerate to 14% in 2024 to $1.04 trillion. New technologies, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), coupled with aging back-end systems of record, should continue to stimulate demand in the sector. The public cloud stands to be the big initial beneficiary of AI as the market is set to grow 20% to $678 billion in 2024, representing modest acceleration from the 17.8% growth achieved in 2023. While Microsoft has jumped to a perceived early lead, we are anxious to see traction with other vendors in 2024. eCommerce Likely to Accelerate to Double-Digit Growth At more than $1 trillion domestically and $6 trillion globally, the e-commerce market remains a huge swing factor in the global outlook for the tech ecosystem. A key question entering 2024 is whether it can finally reaccelerate back into double-digit growth after having spent the last couple of years comparing with the massive gains made in 2020 during COVID lockdowns. The e-commerce market has achieved this by the steady increased adoption across most geographies throughout the world. In the US, e-commerce has traditionally taken ~100 bps annually in consumer spending share. While this may not sound like much, with e-commerce still representing only 15% of spend, it represents a significant tailwind to growth.
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