Raising EPS & EBITDA Estimates; Trimming Sales
We have updated our models following the company’s 2QFY24 (December) earnings release. We are raising our EPS estimates for FY24 (June) to $0.60 from $0.55, FY25 (June) to $0.70 from $0.65, and FY26 (June) to $0.80 from $0.75. Since 2QFY24 beat our previous forecast by $0.06, we are essentially flowing through that upside. Our $0.60 EPS estimate for FY24 is toward the lower end of management’s new range of $0.57-0.67, which was raised from $0.52-0.62 at the time of the release. We are raising our EBITDA forecasts for FY24 to $17.2MM from $17.0MM, FY25 to $19.9MM from $19.4MM, and FY26 to $22.2MM from $21.5MM. Our $17.2MM forecast for FY24 remains toward the middle of management’s range of $16-18MM, which was unchanged at the time of the release, despite the $0.6MM upside versus our previous 2QFY24 forecast. We are reducing our sales forecasts for FY24 to $209.3MM from $217.8MM, FY25 to $220.4MM from $226.3MM, and FY26 to $230.9MM from $236.1MM. We are slightly below the midpoint of management’s new range of $207-213MM, which was reduced from its previous expectations of $216-226MM at the time of the release. The general tone of business halfway through this fiscal year has been one of pressures continuing on the top line, which is not inconsistent with what we have been seeing from direct selling peers, but profitability improvement has been running ahead of expectations. We encourage investors to tune into this week’s Water Tower Hour podcast, which will be dropping on Wednesday, February 14, where LFVN management will dive into more details on the initiatives it is currently undertaking to drive top-line growth.LifeVantage is a company focused on biohacking the aging code through nutrigenomics, the study of how nutrition and naturally occurring compounds affect its genes to support good health. The company is engaged in the identification, research, development and distribution of nutraceutical dietary supplements and personal care products, including its scientifically-validated Protandim? line of dietary supplements, LifeVantage? Omega+ and ProBio dietary supplements, TrueScience?, its line of skin and hair care products, Petandim? for Dogs, its companion pet supplement formulated to combat oxidative stress in dogs, Axio?, its Smart Energy Drink mixes, and PhysIQ?, its Smart Weight Management System.
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