Tech Talk: Quantum Computing
The size of the quantum computing market depends on which source you consult and how it defines the market. The average CAGR is 29% for a billion-dollar market, hitting $4-6 billion in 2030. Quantum computing is a new type of computing that uses the principles of quantum mechanics to solve problems that are too complex for traditional computers. Quantum computing is still in its early stages of development, but it has the potential to revolutionize many industries, such as medicine, materials science, cybersecurity, and finance. Most quantum efforts require extremely cold temperatures, close to absolute zero (-273.15 degrees Celsius), which makes access to quantum computing limited. However, cloud quantum computing-as-a-service (QCaaS) is currently being provided by IBM, Google, Microsoft, and AWS. Recent research into superconducting shows promise. Expert opinions vary, but the consensus seems to be that 128-bit AES encryption will be breached by quantum in 2029. The Linux Foundation is forming an effort to build new cryptographic approaches to withstand future quantum-based attacks. Last year, IBM’s Quantum Computing CEO Dario Gil said that he expects quantum computing to become mainstream in the next 10-15 years. Last October, Atom Computing created the largest quantum computer, 1,180 qubits. Atom Computing’s “Anthem” system surpassed the previous record holder, IBM’s “Condor”, with 1,121 qubits. QuEra Computing is targeting a fault-tolerant 10,000 qubit computer by 2026. There are several technical hurdles for quantum computing, but arguably the biggest one is quantum decoherence. Decoherence introduces errors into calculations, making it difficult for quantum computers to reliably perform complex tasks. The larger the quantum system, the more susceptible it is to decoherence, making it a major hurdle in building large-scale, powerful quantum computers. Fault tolerance and error correction are major avenues of study for quantum research teams. There are several companies, large and small, working on quantum computing, including IBM, Google AI, Microsoft, Honeywell, IonQ, D-Wave Systems, Xanadu, Intel, Alibaba, Rigetti Computing, Pasqal, and Quantinuum. Tech Talk consists of short discussions of the technical issues surrounding a technology investing topic. See previous editions of Tech Talk and other WTR technology reports on our website.
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