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The West vs. China: Metal Competition Driving Geopolitics of Seafloor Nodules

Major accomplishments and milestones. The last 12-plus months saw significant advances for TMC with respect to internal execution and achievements on both the operational and financial fronts, as well as industry and political developments that appear conducive to the company’s aim of bringing the first seafloor polymetallic nodule resource into production. Advancing scientific knowledge and addressing concerns. As the premier player in the seafloor mining industry’s development, TMC significantly expanded its effort to deepen the scientific knowledge of deep-sea mining’s impact on local environments and, together with independent third parties, develop baseline assessment tools to evaluate the environmental impacts of seafloor mining versus land-based operations. The company utilized the data collected during a 4Q22 large-scale pilot collection project and a follow-up environmental data collection campaign conducted in 2H23, which it shared with the international scientific community, to inform its environmental application process with the ISA. Operational and financial milestones. During 2023, TMC entered into a strategic partnership with Low Carbon Royalties, engaged Bechtel to aid in the preparation of an exploitation application with the ISA, signed a binding MoU with PAMCO for toll processing of polymetallic nodules to be collected during Project Zero operations, expanded the scope and size of Project Zero operations, and raised additional capital, extending the operational runway through the ISA application submission timeline. Improving political climate. Concurrent with TMC’s own efforts, the last 12 months saw a marked improvement in the political environment, especially when it comes to the US. US senators, House committees, members of congress, and former political and military leaders urged the government to explore domestic processing of polymetallic nodules as a way to address critical materials onshoring goals and targets, reducing the US’ energy transformation supply chain vulnerabilities. There were also renewed calls for the US to ratify UNCLOS and for the ISA to complete its job of developing mining codes for exploitation of mineral resources in international waters. 2024 looks to be a pivotal year. Given the major strides made by TMC when it comes to de-risking both the financing and the operational steps in its quest to commercially develop its seabed resources and with growing realization that international seafloor mining regulations are a matter of “when” not “if’, especially with a growing political support, TMC can look toward the ISA’s March and July 2024 meetings with increased confidence in a positive outcome, while still reserving the option of submitting a conditional exploitation application in 2024, should the ISA still struggle to complete the final mining code, as intended. 4Q23 review and 2024 outlook. TMC will discuss its 4Q23 performance and accomplishments and provide an outlook and milestone roadmap for 2024 on Monday, March 25, 2024.