Report
Jeff Robertson

Execution Drives 5% Dividend Boost

Vitesse increased its 2Q24 quarterly dividend 5% to $0.525, reflecting a strong production outlook driven by the execution of management’s strategy to grow the asset base with near-term development acquisitions and organic growth projects that surpass its economic hurdle rates. The current yield is 8.7%. Vitesse’s business philosophy is built on the premise of compounding cash invested in oil-oriented producing assets in the Bakken play to sustain and grow the asset base in a fiscally conservative manner to support a fixed dividend. Management’s capital allocation framework revolves around returning cash to shareholders through the dividend policy. Near-term development acquisitions agreed to early in 2Q24 have added $40 million of incremental capital expenditures through the end of 2024 that are expected to contribute to production growth later in 2024 and early in 2025. Management increased FY24 production guidance to 13-14 MBOE/d (69-71% oil) from its initial outlook of 12.5-13.0 MBOE/d. Total capital expenditures are now expected to be $130-150 million, compared with the initial outlook of $90-100 million. Management estimates the maintenance capital requirement to hold production steady is ~$90 million. Management’s attraction to the Bakken play is based on the concept that drilling and completion technological innovation could drive increased oil recoveries from the unconventional reservoir and lower costs over time to expand the economic limits of the play. Operators are drilling three-mile laterals where acreage allows and experimenting with refracing older wells that may have been under stimulated to increase recoveries. Vitesse generated $39.1 million of adjusted EBITDA during 1Q24 on 12.6 MBOE/d (71% oil) of production. Oil accounted for 94% of total revenue. 1Q24 production was adversely affected by severe winter weather in January. Vitesse ended 1Q24 with $98 million outstanding on its RBL credit facility and a 0.6x leverage ratio based on annualized 1Q24 adjusted EBITDA. Elected commitments on the RBL are expected to increase to $245 million with the spring redetermination. Our updated FY24 and FY25 adjusted EBITDA estimates are $175.1 million and $200.7 million (Figures 1-5). Vitesse is currently trading at 4.8x and 4.2x our FY24 and FY25 estimates, respectively. Please join us on Tuesday, May 14, 2024, at 2:30 pm ET for a fireside chat with CEO Bob Gerrity and President Brian Cree where we will discuss the company’s income-oriented business model. Those interested can register for the event with the link accessible in our full report.
Underlying
VITESSE ENERGY INC

Provider
Water Tower Research
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Analysts
Jeff Robertson

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