reports
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: US inflation shouldn't rock the boat
The tech selloff appears to be offering the dollar some support, suggesting that a degree of safe-haven value has been restored. The USD is currently cheap against most G10 currencies; however, medium-term bearish sentiment may still encourage selling into rallies. Today's CPI should be in line with consensus, in our view
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Dollar struggling to catch the tailwind
A set of robust US jobs numbers yesterday prompted a hawkish Fed repricing, but failed to give a significant boost to the dollar. This is – in our view – a signal of lingering strategic bearishness on the greenback, which can only be fought with more good data. We expect some stabilisation in USD crosses today
- Francesco Pesole
SEK Outlook 2026: Slower, more predictable appreciation
We see limited downside room in the next few months for EUR/SEK due to stretched valuation, but still expect a move to 10.30 by year-end on the back of Sweden's attractive growth/fiscal profile and no Riksbank cuts. USD/SEK should continue to have larger downside potential in line with our bearish USD view: we target a drop below 8.50 this year
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Some payrolls disappointment is already priced in
Markets have pre-empted a softer payroll print relative to the consensus 65k, largely on the back of Kevin Hassett's warnings earlier this week. Our economist's call is 80k payrolls and unchanged 4.4% unemployment, which in our view would be enough to remove some negatives from the dollar. Still, the conditions for a sustainable USD recovery aren't there
- Chris Turner
- David Havrlant
- Deepali Bhargava
- Dmitry Dolgin
- Francesco Pesole
- Lynn Song
- Mateusz Sutowicz
- Min Joo Kang
- Peter Virovacz
- Rafal Benecki
- Valentin Tataru
FX Talking: Dollar appetite erodes
Two central themes are driving FX markets. The first is rare optimism on global growth, which has seen the commodity bloc and the procyclical currencies of Europe and Asia outperforming. The second is the erosion of confidence in the dollar – or at least the risk of having all your eggs in one dollar-denominated basket. Expect the dollar to stay pressured
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: JGB stability helps the yen
Some welcome stability in the Japanese bond market is allowing a more positive assessment of the yen to win through. However, it would probably take much earlier Bank of Japan tightening to drive USD/JPY closer to 150. And after a poor performance on Monday, the dollar could derive a little support from a decent US retail sales figure today
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Headwinds stiffening for the dollar
The dollar is under pressure at the start of European trading today. Risk assets are bid as US big tech came back from the brink last week and the Nikkei surged on an emphatic win for the LDP in Sunday's Japanese election. The narrative of diversification away from the US is also in play after Chinese regulators warned of concentration risk in Treasuries
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Soft labour data holds back defensive dollar rally
What was noticeable yesterday was that US interest rates did seem to react to some softer labour market data. This week's re-pricing lower of the Fed's terminal rate has therefore taken the sting out of a potential defensive rally in the dollar. This could leave the dollar vulnerable into next week's US jobs data. And the ECB seems comfortable with EUR/USD
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Corrective forces in play
A burgeoning sell-off in US tech stocks and ongoing volatility in the metals markets are providing many cross-currents for FX. Yet interest rate volatility remains low, providing some insulation to those heavily invested in FX carry trades. Rate meetings in the eurozone, UK and Czechia are the focus for today's session, as is some second-tier US jobs data
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Data can trigger new leg up in USD
Our view for this week remains that data has the most potential to steer USD crosses, and today's busy US calendar offers a couple of opportunities. ADP payrolls will be watched closely given the delay in official data, alongside the ISM services survey. Our call is that decent-enough figures could take EUR/USD back below 1.180 in the next couple of days
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Bittersweet data delay for the dollar
USD found more support yesterday before coming under mild pressure overnight. Strong ISM manufacturing figures helped, and data should regain centrality, although payrolls will be delayed at least a week due to the partial shutdown. In Australia, the RBA hike was deemed quite hawkish: we don't fully agree, and AUD/USD may still be due a correction
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Attempting the re-basement trade
The dollar has recovered a bit further as gold and silver have plunged, and we think there is enough stability to let data do the talking in FX this week. The US calendar should culminate in decent payrolls/unemployment, opening the door to some more dollar upside. Elsewhere, the ECB may not discuss the euro much after all, while the RBA could hike tonight
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Warsh is the dollar lifeline, for now
Trump is widely expected to nominate Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair today. It's good news for the dollar, which can price out some risks of a more dovish pick. However, a new catalyst may be needed in the coming days to break decisively below 1.190 in EUR/USD. There are plenty of data releases in the eurozone today, but the FX impact may be limited
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Dollar not out of the woods yet
The dollar has shown signs of stabilising, but has struggled to stay bid on Bessent's ruling out JPY intervention and a slightly hawkish Fed. The risks of another major leg lower in USD remain elevated, even if our bias is for a short-term recovery, given the overall supporting macro and rates picture. Elsewhere, expect few surprises by the Riksbank today
- Francesco Pesole
- James Knightley
Bank of Canada keeps rates unchanged, and options open
The BoC kept rates at 2.25% as widely expected today. Despite major uncertainty, the bank remains explicitly content with this rate level, and we don't currently forecast any change by year-end. However, options remain open, and the risks appear slightly on the dovish side. We see upside potential for USD/CAD
- Francesco Pesole
- James Knightley
Bank of Canada keeps rates unchanged, and options open
The BoC kept rates at 2.25% as widely expected today. Despite major uncertainty, the bank remains explicitly content with this rate level, and we don't currently forecast any change by year-end. However, options remain open, and the risks appear slightly on the dovish side. We see upside potential for USD/CAD
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Dollar sentiment shifts markedly
Tuesday saw the dollar sell-off extend across the board. There was no fresh catalyst for the move, and President Trump's comments that he was not concerned by the weaker dollar came late in the day. If the buy-side has decided to raise its dollar hedge ratios on US policy risk and a sense that Washington wants a weaker dollar, it makes no sense to stand in the way
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Here's why the dollar sell-off could stall
Conditions in global FX markets are a little calmer today. USD/JPY continues to retrace some of its heavy losses, but EUR/USD remains very bid. We do not see any triggers for big FX moves today, but take the view that the dollar could find support at the bottom of its 2025 trading range
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: The three themes driving global FX right now
It has been a noisy couple of weeks in FX markets, with three key themes in play: 1) Optimism over global growth driving strong gains in commodities and EMFX, 2) Ongoing fears over a captured Fed and the dollar debasement trade, and 3) Weak fiscal positions being exposed by developments in Japanese politics and JGBs. None of these look dollar positive
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Davos relief can bring focus back to macro and Fed
Davos brought a de-escalation in geopolitical and tariff risk, and the dollar can enjoy a bit more support from here, in our view, as focus shifts to a supportive macro picture. Elsewhere, Norway's central bank should not surprise markets today, while New Zealand inflation may well outpace the RBNZ's projections and help NZD, especially in the crosses
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