reports
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
FX Daily: More noise than signals for the dollar
It has been a mixed week for the dollar, where early-week strength finally eased a little yesterday on indications of softer US jobs data. Yet with the US government shutdown ongoing, we are still in the dark about the true labour market picture. Expect more $ consolidation and focus on regional stories such as soft China trade data and the Canada jobs release
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
FX Daily: Dollar rally looking tired
Despite good ADP and ISM services data, the USD has corrected lower. With equities re-stabilising, the risks remain of further USD pullbacks after a rally that has exceeded what rate differentials can justify. Today, we see the BoE on hold despite mounting speculation of a pre-Budget cut. Norges Bank is likely to hold too, with low risks of guidance tweaks
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
FX Daily: Equity correction casts a shadow over FX
The risk mood has darkened a little this week, with some sizeable corrections emerging in some equity markets. There has not been one catalyst per se, but lofty valuations must be leading to some profit-taking in uncertain conditions. For today, it's all about the US ADP jobs release and what it means for the December Fed meeting. Expect FX to stay defensive
- Chris Turner
- Deepali Bhargava
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
Webinar: ING's 2026 FX Outlook
As the dollar continues to recover from its April losses, investors are asking: how much further can it go? And in what may be a low-volatility environment, which currencies are best positioned to challenge dollar dominance? Join our expert panel as they unpack these questions and more. Sign up here
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
FX Daily: Data dependency without the data
FX markets are struggling to find direction this week. The Fed's doubts on whether to cut in December naturally increase scrutiny of data: this means both depressed volatility during data silence and some potential exacerbation of USD reaction to any labour indicator (like tomorrow's ADP). Our call remains that the dollar is close to its peak
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
FX Daily: Tight money lending support to dollar
The dollar remains bid as the market continues to question whether the Fed needs to cut rates to 3.00/3.25% after all. Also helping the dollar may be tight money market conditions as the US Treasury restocks its cash balances. In the absence of official data, the focus this week will be on insights into the US job market from private sector releases
- Francesco Pesole
Riksbank preview: Strong growth to keep easing out of the picture
The Riksbank and the ECB are both in a 'good place'. However, the risks that rates will be lowered again in Sweden are even lower than in the eurozone, as the growth outlook continues to improve and the Riksbank already took rates below 2% in September. We don't expect any new guidance at this meeting, and the krona's outlook remains good into 2026
- Francesco Pesole
Riksbank preview: Strong growth to keep easing out of the picture
The Riksbank and the ECB are both in a 'good place'. However, the risks that rates will be lowered again in Sweden are even lower than in the eurozone, as the growth outlook continues to improve and the Riksbank already took rates below 2% in September. We don't expect any new guidance at this meeting, and the krona's outlook remains good into 2026
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
FX Daily: Dollar squeezing every bit of Powell's hawkishness
The dollar enjoyed a second round of support yesterday as Powell's relatively hawkish press conference continued to resonate with data-starved markets. But the conditions for another big leg higher in USD aren't there, in our view. Meanwhile, Japan has intervened verbally to curb JPY volatility, and GBP is looking closely at Reeves' political position
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- James Smith
- Michiel Tukker
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- James Smith
- Michiel Tukker
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- James Smith
- Michiel Tukker
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
FX Daily: Fed discord delays dollar drop
News from Powell's press conference that the Fed has strongly differing views about the future path for policy has prompted a 10bp re-assessment of the Fed easing cycle and provided support for the dollar. Most vulnerable to firmer USD rates are the low-yielding yen and Swiss franc, whereas commodity-backed FX is welcoming a thaw in US-China relations
- Francesco Pesole
- James Knightley
Bank of Canada cuts rates again, but signals the end is approaching
The BoC cut its policy rate by 25bp, bringing the cumulative reduction to 275bp since June 2024. It signalled that the new policy stance is “about right” but risks are skewed toward more action in 2026. This warns against getting excited about a CAD recovery versus most other G10 currencies, also considering the risks of further deterioration in trade news
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Echoes of September, but USD rally less likely now
We expect a 25bp Fed cut today, in line with pricing and consensus. In September, a similar setting from a pricing perspective prompted a sharp dollar rebound. Now, with positioning more balanced and inflation looking better, it's harder to see the same reaction. We expect some CAD weakness as the Bank of Canada should also cut by 25bp today
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Jobs and consumer confidence to weigh on dollar
The dollar is a little weaker across the board in quiet trading conditions. The yen is outperforming on some very mild verbal intervention from Japanese authorities - but hardly enough to drive a sustainable trend. In a market deprived of US data by the government shutdown, there may be more focus than usual on reports that Amazon plans to cut 30,000 jobs
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
FX Daily: Risk assets bid on expected US-China détente
Global risk assets are bid on the view that this week's Trump-Xi meeting will be a positive one. A 25bp Fed cut on Wednesday should also help the tone, but that is very much priced in. With the People's Bank of China continuing to fix USD/CNY lower, we favour a mild downside bias to the dollar at the start of the week
- Francesco Pesole
- James Knightley
- Padhraic Garvey
- CFA
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
FX Daily: Why the US CPI may be a non-event
After a long wait, we get some tier-one hard US data with today's CPI release. But we see a good chance that a consensus 0.3% MoM core print will fail to materially move the dollar. The ongoing spillover of US sanctions on Russia into oil prices may prove a more impactful FX driver. Meanwhile, Trump ending trade talks with Canada adds to the grim outlook for CAD
- Francesco Pesole
- James Knightley
Bank of Canada set to cut again despite inflation uptick
Lingering trade-induced uncertainty continues to weigh on Canadian activity and carries risks of broader jobs market deterioration. We expect the BoC to overlook higher-than-expected jobs and inflation data and cut by 25bp on 29 October. The door may be left open to more easing, and CAD should remain vulnerable against most of the G10
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