reports
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
FX Daily: Fiscal risk hitting the pound
The drop in USD this week seems to be linked to expectations that US data will come in soft. But hearing Fed speakers, the move seems a bit premature, even if it looks like we could get September payrolls data soon. In the UK, the government is scrapping its income tax hike plans. GBP downside risks have suddenly increased
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
FX Daily: Japan may wait for US data to intervene in FX
USD/JPY continues to test the highs in a low-volatility, risk-on environment. Key US data won't be released as soon as the government reopens, but Japan may wait for a USD-negative event to intervene. Meanwhile, UK growth underwhelmed, adding some pressure to GBP, which is already hit by political risk. Strong jobs data support our bullish AUD view
- Francesco Pesole
- Chris Turner
- Deepali Bhargava
- Francesco Pesole
- James Wilson
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
FX Daily: Carry trade is proving persistent
The carry trade suffered a stress test yesterday, when one popular target currency, the Hungarian forint, had to cope with prospects of wider budget deficits. After selling off 0.7%, the forint is already coming back bid. With volatility expected to stay low, it's hard to see any major unwinds of carry strategies in the near term
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
FX Daily: Bittersweet government reopening for the dollar
The US government shutdown looks likely to end in the coming days, with a House vote now the final hurdle. The implications for FX are mostly visible in high-beta currencies, and there are no clear-cut directional implications for the dollar. Meanwhile, soft UK jobs data should endorse more dovish repricing of BoE expectations ahead of the Budget
- Adam Antoniak
- Chris Turner
- David Havrlant
- Deepali Bhargava
- Dmitry Dolgin
- Ewa Manthey
- Francesco Pesole
- James Wilson
- Lynn Song
- Mateusz Sutowicz
- Min Joo Kang
- Muhammet Mercan
- Peter Virovacz
- Rafal Benecki
- Stefan Posea
- Valentin Tataru
FX Outlook 2026: Play the ball, not the man
If 2025 has been about trying to second-guess the moves of the Trump administration, 2026 should reflect more of a return to currency fundamentals. That may mean less focus on the big dollar trend as the Fed drops rates to neutral and keeps them there. Lower volatility should generate even more interest in carry
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
FX Daily: Shutdown progress gives risk a lift
Risk assets have been helped over the weekend by news that a group of moderate Democrat senators are softening their stance on the US government shutdown. There is still a long way to go here, but we should know over the next couple of days whether the current compromise bill has legs. Expect subdued FX trading, however, given the lack of US data
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
FX Daily: More noise than signals for the dollar
It has been a mixed week for the dollar, where early-week strength finally eased a little yesterday on indications of softer US jobs data. Yet with the US government shutdown ongoing, we are still in the dark about the true labour market picture. Expect more $ consolidation and focus on regional stories such as soft China trade data and the Canada jobs release
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
FX Daily: Dollar rally looking tired
Despite good ADP and ISM services data, the USD has corrected lower. With equities re-stabilising, the risks remain of further USD pullbacks after a rally that has exceeded what rate differentials can justify. Today, we see the BoE on hold despite mounting speculation of a pre-Budget cut. Norges Bank is likely to hold too, with low risks of guidance tweaks
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
FX Daily: Equity correction casts a shadow over FX
The risk mood has darkened a little this week, with some sizeable corrections emerging in some equity markets. There has not been one catalyst per se, but lofty valuations must be leading to some profit-taking in uncertain conditions. For today, it's all about the US ADP jobs release and what it means for the December Fed meeting. Expect FX to stay defensive
- Chris Turner
- Deepali Bhargava
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
Webinar: ING's 2026 FX Outlook
As the dollar continues to recover from its April losses, investors are asking: how much further can it go? And in what may be a low-volatility environment, which currencies are best positioned to challenge dollar dominance? Join our expert panel as they unpack these questions and more. Sign up here
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
FX Daily: Data dependency without the data
FX markets are struggling to find direction this week. The Fed's doubts on whether to cut in December naturally increase scrutiny of data: this means both depressed volatility during data silence and some potential exacerbation of USD reaction to any labour indicator (like tomorrow's ADP). Our call remains that the dollar is close to its peak
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
FX Daily: Tight money lending support to dollar
The dollar remains bid as the market continues to question whether the Fed needs to cut rates to 3.00/3.25% after all. Also helping the dollar may be tight money market conditions as the US Treasury restocks its cash balances. In the absence of official data, the focus this week will be on insights into the US job market from private sector releases
- Francesco Pesole
Riksbank preview: Strong growth to keep easing out of the picture
The Riksbank and the ECB are both in a 'good place'. However, the risks that rates will be lowered again in Sweden are even lower than in the eurozone, as the growth outlook continues to improve and the Riksbank already took rates below 2% in September. We don't expect any new guidance at this meeting, and the krona's outlook remains good into 2026
- Francesco Pesole
Riksbank preview: Strong growth to keep easing out of the picture
The Riksbank and the ECB are both in a 'good place'. However, the risks that rates will be lowered again in Sweden are even lower than in the eurozone, as the growth outlook continues to improve and the Riksbank already took rates below 2% in September. We don't expect any new guidance at this meeting, and the krona's outlook remains good into 2026
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
FX Daily: Dollar squeezing every bit of Powell's hawkishness
The dollar enjoyed a second round of support yesterday as Powell's relatively hawkish press conference continued to resonate with data-starved markets. But the conditions for another big leg higher in USD aren't there, in our view. Meanwhile, Japan has intervened verbally to curb JPY volatility, and GBP is looking closely at Reeves' political position
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- James Smith
- Michiel Tukker
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- James Smith
- Michiel Tukker
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- James Smith
- Michiel Tukker
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