reports
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Risk assets gain a reprieve as energy costs bite
After a very shaky start, Monday proved to be a day of reversal for risk assets as President Trump hinted that military operations could end soon. No one knows whether that will be the case, but Monday's events show that the US administration is more sensitive to energy than it seemed. However, oil needs to start flowing again for this $ reversal to extend
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Dollar holds its own as economic fallout builds
Far from calming down over the weekend, events in the Middle East only point to a broadening economic shock as oil spikes through $100/barrel. Israel and the US are broadening their targets within Iran, while Iran continues to target economic sites in Gulf states. We doubt an emergency release of oil stocks by the IEA will calm tension for long. USD to stay bid
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Jobs data, monetary policy and energy support packages
FX markets remain nervous, if a little calmer, as investors track the latest developments in the Middle East. US jobs data could be slightly USD negative today, as could any large energy support package from the US Treasury. We'll also want to see what central bankers make of all this and are interested to hear from the Fed's Christopher Waller at 1:30pm CET
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: No quick fix
Risk assets are struggling again today after yesterday's bounce. It seems clear that there is going to be no quick fix to the war in the Middle East, be it a negotiated settlement or the US military somehow managing to reopen the Straits of Hormuz. News of China's economic plan will not help either, which focuses on a higher quality, but lower growth model
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Energy shock prompts broad FX deleveraging
FX markets saw a subtle shift in drivers yesterday, where the energy shock switched into a broad deleveraging of risk as cross-market volatility spiked. These risk unwinds tend to be short, sharp affairs. Before re-entering trades, investors will need to see some good news, either in the form of lower energy prices or central banks being able to ease policy
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Overweight Europe and EM positions remain at risk
The Middle East conflict and its implications for energy prices continue to dominate FX markets. Energy-exporting currencies, including the dollar, are performing well, while the importers in Europe and Asia remain under pressure. Unless we see some breakthrough good news, such as the restarting of gas supply in Qatar, these trends will continue
- Chris Turner
- Dmitry Dolgin
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Limited Iran fallout so far; upside dollar risks remain
The FX fallout from the attack on Iran has been relatively limited so far, with the dollar a little stronger and the Swiss franc outperforming. It seems far too early to try and fight this dollar strength, while sharply higher natural gas prices today should weigh on the euro. We expect the dollar to stay supported this week as investors question Fed easing
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Domestic stories can keep pound under pressure
This could be a relatively quiet end of the week for the dollar as uncertainty over US-Iran tensions may prevent major directional shifts. In the UK, a by-election win by the Green Party spells more trouble for PM Keir Starmer, and is opening more downside risks for the pound against the euro
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Yen remans hard to love in the short term
We don't fully trust the dovish repricing in Bank of Japan expectations after recent central bank appointments, but upbeat risk sentiment (Nvidia earnings were strong) and soft Tokyo CPI overnight can keep JPY under pressure for a bit longer. The dollar also still faces some downside risks despite its strong rate advantage
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Nvidia earnings could be big for FX
Ahead of today's Nvidia earnings report, we think a miss could have wider risk sentiment and FX implications than a beat. Among G10 currencies, AUD remains the most vulnerable to stock market turmoil, in our view. The USD reaction will tell us how much AI concerns are US-specific. The CEE region remains on a dovish wave, also thanks to strong FX
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Cutting through the AI noise
Markets seemed to have settled a little after Monday's weakness in equities spread across to bank stocks. This volatility in equity markets at multi-year highs probably reflects stretched valuation levels and a fully-invested buy-side. It looks too early to expect the dollar to receive broad support from these themes, and Asian FX could find new friends
- Chris Turner
- Dmitry Dolgin
- Francesco Pesole
- Padhraic Garvey
- CFA
Dollar 2026 decline: more cyclical than structural
The dollar has started the year under pressure again. The prevailing narrative is that this is part of some structural loss of confidence in the dollar, if not in US asset markets. While we acknowledge some decades-old gradual de-dollarisation trends, our view is that the 2026 dollar decline will be more cyclical than structural. Here are 10 Q&As
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Another bumpy week for the dollar
The dollar starts the week on the soft side as investors digest what trade policy uncertainty means for the US economy. The risk of a US military strike against Iran has not receded, and traders will be reluctant to pile into pro-risk positions. For today, look out for an upbeat German Ifo; we'll also hear why the Fed's Christopher Waller wants a rate cut
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
FX Daily: EUR/USD can fall to 1.16 on further Iran escalation
Large-scale US military deployment is raising the perceived risk of an imminent strike on Iran. The dollar acts more efficiently as a safe haven when geopolitical risk lifts crude prices, yet markets remain reluctant to fully price this in, leaving scope for further USD gains if escalation continues. Today's PCE, GDP and PMIs may matter less
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Fed confirms it checked rates in USD/JPY
The release of the January FOMC minutes last night confirmed that the New York Fed did check USD/JPY rates on behalf of the US Treasury last month, adding to the view that Washington wouldn't mind a weaker USD. The other takeaway from the minutes was that most of the Fed needs to see lower inflation before cutting rates again. The dollar rally looks stretched
- Chris Turner
- Dmitry Dolgin
- Francesco Pesole
Webinar: Why the dollar's 2026 decline will be more cyclical than stru...
The dollar has started 2026 on a weak footing. The prevailing view is that global investors are reviewing their allocations to US assets or, at the very least, are reconsidering their views on the dollar. But to what extent will any further dollar sell-off be driven by structural rather than cyclical factors? Sign up here
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Japan starts its US investment programme
In quiet FX markets, two stories are dominating. The first is a more dovish than expected Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting; the second is the start of Japanese investment into the US as part of the trade deal. Both are mildly dollar positive, and the data calendar today looks a little dollar positive too
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Domestic stories coming to the fore
The dollar started the holiday week with some support, but we might not get a clear directional USD move over the coming days, allowing more focus on domestic stories elsewhere in the G10. Germany's ZEW should improve this morning, while the RBNZ should keep rates on hold overnight, but may send some hawkish hints
- Francesco Pesole
RBNZ preview: Watch for hawkish hints
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will likely keep rates unchanged on 18 February. However, inflation and policy rate projections may be revised higher, at least partly validating tightening expectations for this year. We expect two rate hikes from 3Q, taking rates to 2.75% by year-end and offering medium-term support to NZD
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Still searching for a dollar pulse
The improvement in US macro has not been enough to materially revamp confidence in the dollar, and we don't have high hopes for this week's calendar. Still, in the short term, a break below 1.180 looks more likely than 1.20 in EUR/USD given the stretched valuation. In the UK, key data could endorse a March BoE cut this week and weigh on GBP
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.