reports
- Adam Antoniak
- David Havrlant
- James Knightley
- James Smith
- Peter Virovacz
THINK Ahead: Why the Fed's jobs market confidence could prove misplace...
The Fed is becoming more relaxed about the US jobs market. Yet data this week makes that look complacent. And payroll numbers next week will be key. So what's going on beneath the surface? James Smith tells the story in 10 charts as we enter another week dominated by American economic data
- James Knightley
US hiring slowdown points to weaker jobs numbers
An apparent slowdown in hiring suggests the Fed may have acted a little prematurely in downplaying the risks to the jobs aspect of its mandate at the January FOMC meeting. Major downward revisions to payrolls next week would add to the pressure to eventually resume rate cuts
- Bert Colijn
- David Havrlant
- Dmitry Dolgin
- James Knightley
- James Smith
- Leszek Kasek
- Muhammet Mercan
- Peter Virovacz
THINK Ahead: When a good place turns bad
Central banks from Washington to Frankfurt are telling us they're in a good place. And they have a point, even if that seems wildly at odds with *gestures at everything going on in the world*. Read on for James Smith's look at what could drag policymakers out of their happy place this year as the team looks ahead to another big week in markets
- Carsten Brzeski
- Charlotte de Montpellier
- Chris Turner
- David Havrlant
- Deepali Bhargava
- Dmitry Dolgin
- Frantisek Taborsky
- Franziska Biehl
- James Knightley
- James Smith
- Leszek Kasek
- Lynn Song
- Marcel Klok
- Min Joo Kang
- Padhraic Garvey
- CFA
- Paolo Pizzoli
- Peter Vanden Houte
- Peter Virovacz
- Philippe Ledent
- Ruben Dewitte
- Valentin Tataru
- Warren Patterson
ING Monthly: Europe's Arnold moment – why strategy over spectacle matt...
The first month of 2026 has confirmed we've entered a new era of political muscle flexing. Europe may have signalled strength in the face of geopolitical tensions lately, but does it have a clear-cut strategy to back it up? As we've learnt from our friend Arnold, flexing without a plan is just posturing
- Chris Turner
- James Knightley
- Padhraic Garvey
- CFA
Fed holds rates steady at the top of the neutral range
The Fed left monetary policy unchanged in a range between 3.5% and 3.75%, but the accompanying statement and press conference suggested the Fed is more confident that the policy easing cycle is close to a conclusion. Treasury yields and the dollar have received some support from this, but there will be more tests to come
- Chris Turner
- James Knightley
- Padhraic Garvey
- CFA
Fed holds rates steady at the top of the neutral range
The Fed left monetary policy unchanged in a range between 3.5% and 3.75%, but the accompanying statement and press conference suggested the Fed is more confident that the policy easing cycle is close to a conclusion. Treasury yields and the dollar have received some support from this, but there will be more tests to come
- Chris Turner
- James Knightley
- Padhraic Garvey
- CFA
Fed holds rates steady at the top of the neutral range
The Fed left monetary policy unchanged in a range between 3.5% and 3.75%, but the accompanying statement and press conference suggested the Fed is more confident that the policy easing cycle is close to a conclusion. Treasury yields and the dollar have received some support from this, but there will be more tests to come
- Francesco Pesole
- James Knightley
Bank of Canada keeps rates unchanged, and options open
The BoC kept rates at 2.25% as widely expected today. Despite major uncertainty, the bank remains explicitly content with this rate level, and we don't currently forecast any change by year-end. However, options remain open, and the risks appear slightly on the dovish side. We see upside potential for USD/CAD
- Francesco Pesole
- James Knightley
Bank of Canada keeps rates unchanged, and options open
The BoC kept rates at 2.25% as widely expected today. Despite major uncertainty, the bank remains explicitly content with this rate level, and we don't currently forecast any change by year-end. However, options remain open, and the risks appear slightly on the dovish side. We see upside potential for USD/CAD
- James Knightley
US sentiment slides again as consumer pressures mount
Consumer confidence readings paint a much weaker picture than is suggested by spending data. This likely reflects the bifurcation story whereby spending is being driven by a relatively small cohort of high-income households while middle and lower-income households are feeling more financial pressure and are more nervous about what the future holds
- Chris Turner
- James Knightley
- Padhraic Garvey
- CFA
Fed to hold steady as we await the President's decision
Both the data and Chair Powell's robust defence of central bank independence indicate little prospect of a 28 January Fed rate cut. The key question is, can the President's pick for Chair convince the rest of the committee that further action will be needed
- Chris Turner
- James Knightley
- Padhraic Garvey
- CFA
Fed to hold steady as we await the President's decision
Both the data and Chair Powell's robust defence of central bank independence indicate little prospect of a 28 January Fed rate cut. The key question is, can the President's pick for Chair convince the rest of the committee that further action will be needed
- Chris Turner
- James Knightley
- Padhraic Garvey
- CFA
Fed to hold steady as we await the President's decision
Both the data and Chair Powell's robust defence of central bank independence indicate little prospect of a 28 January Fed rate cut. The key question is, can the President's pick for Chair convince the rest of the committee that further action will be needed
- Adam Antoniak
- David Havrlant
- Dmitry Dolgin
- James Knightley
- James Smith
- Peter Virovacz
THINK Ahead: The economy powers on. Economists, not so much…
To say a lot has already happened this year might be the understatement of the century. James Smith is wilting, unlike the global economy, which, against all odds, has held up remarkably well. Does this week's drama change that? And surely next week will be calmer? Here's what we expect
- David Havrlant
- Dmitry Dolgin
- James Knightley
- James Smith
- Muhammet Mercan
- Valentin Tataru
THINK Ahead: Powell to the people
Five days on from *that* video from Fed Chair Powell, insisting that a criminal investigation against him is all about exerting pressure to cut rates, markets remain... unfazed. Is it simply because nothing has escalated since? Or is falling inflation keeping a lid on concerns about Fed independence? And what about next week? Read on...
- James Knightley
Benign US inflation keeps the door open for at least two further rate ...
The December inflation data was weaker than anticipated and confirms that tariffs are not having the immediate impact on prices that most feared. The fact it is coming through so slowly gives more opportunity for falling energy costs, slowing housing rents and weaker wage growth to mitigate
- James Knightley
US job angst grows despite a dip in unemployment
Jobs growth has effectively ground to a halt and the jobs that are being added are concentrated in just three sectors. The bulk of the US economy is trimming employment, which points to further work for the Federal Reserve. Nonetheless, the dip in unemployment and a likely 'hot' inflation print next week suggests no action before March
- Adam Antoniak
- David Havrlant
- James Knightley
- James Smith
- Peter Vanden Houte
- James Knightley
Soaring US services clouds the Fed rate cut story
The ISM services index hit a 14-month high with surging output, orders and employment, but this contradicts the relative softness seen in other business surveys. Meanwhile, job openings numbers cooled more than anticipated, reinforcing the low hire, low fire narrative for the US jobs market that will also be seen in Friday's payrolls data
- Carsten Brzeski
- James Knightley
- James Smith
Webinar: Trump's tariffs on trial - The Supreme Court ruling that coul...
What happens if a raft of President Trump's tariffs are ruled illegal by the Supreme Court this Friday? Join us on Monday for a 30-minute live webinar as our economists explain the potential impact of the decision on the global economy and central banks. Sign up here
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