reports
- James Knightley
- James Knightley
US household spending holds firm
Remarkably strong retail sales numbers for March contradict somewhat weaker survey and credit card spending evidence, but with jobs, inflation and activity all beating expectations the Federal Reserve is in no position to carry through with interest rate cuts anytime soon
- James Knightley
- James Smith
- Lynn Song
- Min Joo Kang
- Carsten Brzeski
- Chris Turner
- Ewa Manthey
- Frantisek Taborsky
- James Knightley
- James Smith
- Lynn Song
- Min Joo Kang
- Padhraic Garvey
- CFA
- Peter Virovacz
- Rafal Benecki
- Stefan Posea
- Warren Patterson
ING Monthly: Hello, hello, hello, how low?
We're giving a nod to Nirvana this month, one of the greatest rock bands of all time. And the chorus from Smells Like Teen Spirit could certainly be answered by central banks in the coming weeks. The global economy is certainly showing signs of recovery, although we're far from that 'perfect place of peace and happiness' suggested by the name
- Francesco Pesole
- James Knightley
Bank of Canada leaves the door open to a June cut
Interest rate cut expectations have receded everywhere following the US inflation data, but there are subtle dovish incremental shifts within the BoC's commentary that suggest should inflation and unemployment continue with their current momentum then the BoC are open to a June rate cut. The Canadian dollar is facing more downside risks
- Francesco Pesole
- James Knightley
Bank of Canada leaves the door open to a June cut
Interest rate cut expectations have receded everywhere following the US inflation data, but there are subtle dovish incremental shifts within the BoC's commentary that suggest should inflation and unemployment continue with their current momentum then the BoC are open to a June rate cut. The Canadian dollar is facing more downside risks
- James Knightley
US inflation quashes the chances of a June Fed rate cut
US inflation came in at 0.4% MoM for the third consecutive month, more than double the rate we need to consistently hit to bring inflation down to 2% YoY. Expectations for a June Federal Reserve interest rate cut have collapsed with the higher for longer narrative on rates firmly in place. September is going to be the earliest opportunity for any policy easing
- James Knightley
US jobs strength continues despite survey weakness
The US added 303,000 jobs in March, which is more than anyone was expecting. With next week's inflation likely to remain hot, the prospect of a June rate cut from the Fed looks slim. Nonetheless, with business surveys universally pointing to weakness over the next 3-6 months we do expect to see more evidence of cooling by the summer
- Adam Antoniak
- James Knightley
- James Smith
- Lynn Song
- Min Joo Kang
- Nicky Mapa
- Peter Virovacz
- Francesco Pesole
- James Knightley
Bank of Canada preview: Why the BoC could open the door to a June rate...
Inflation is converging on target and labour market slack is increasing, but for now, Canada's central bank remains wary. Nonetheless, it doesn't want to cause a recession and we expect the BoC to open the door to a possible June rate cut. We expect CAD to underperform other commodity currencies
- Francesco Pesole
- James Knightley
Bank of Canada preview: Why the BoC could open the door to a June rate...
Inflation is converging on target and labour market slack is increasing, but for now, Canada's central bank remains wary. Nonetheless, it doesn't want to cause a recession and we expect the BoC to open the door to a possible June rate cut. We expect CAD to underperform other commodity currencies
- James Knightley
US service sector price pressures cool as activity slows
The March ISM services index was weaker than predicted while price pressures moderated to four-year lows. With employment remaining in contraction territory this report should boost the case for interest rate cuts, but the breakdown in the relationship with official data means the Federal Reserve will remain wary of moving too soon
- James Knightley
Subtle signs of a cooling jobs US market will aid the Fed's inflation ...
The number of job vacancies remains elevated, but is moving into better balance with the supply of available workers. Meanwhile a slowing quit rates suggests a broader cooling is happening, which implies a moderation in labour cost growth that will help ease broader inflation fears
- James Knightley
The return of US manufacturing growth lifts optimism
The ISM manufacturing index surprised everyone by moving into growth territory for the first time since late 2022 with production jumping, new orders rising and inflation pressures increasing. Markets interpreted that as reducing the chances of meaningful Fed rate cuts, but construction was much weaker and there are a lot of jobs numbers still to come
- Adam Antoniak
- Bert Colijn
- James Knightley
- James Smith
- Lynn Song
- Min Joo Kang
- Muhammet Mercan
- Nicky Mapa
- Peter Virovacz
- Rob Carnell
- James Knightley
Weakness in US investment keeps the focus on the consumer
Durable goods orders are a good lead indicator for broader capex spending in the US. Unfortunately, ongoing weakness here suggests investment spending will remain a constraint on overall growth with the US' 2024 economic prospects being determined by the consumer
- James Knightley
- Lynn Song
- Min Joo Kang
- Nicky Mapa
- Peter Virovacz
- Rob Carnell
- Chris Turner
- James Knightley
US Fed holds policy steady and sticks with three-cut view for 2024
The Federal Reserve left the Fed funds target rate range unchanged and continues to indicate three 25bp rate cuts is the most likely path ahead for 2024. This is modestly dovish, but with growth and inflation projections revised stronger, the Fed believes that the risk is that interest rates will be higher than previously thought over the longer term
- Chris Turner
- James Knightley
US Fed holds policy steady and sticks with three-cut view for 2024
The Federal Reserve left the Fed funds target rate range unchanged and continues to indicate three 25bp rate cuts is the most likely path ahead for 2024. This is modestly dovish, but with growth and inflation projections revised stronger, the Fed believes that the risk is that interest rates will be higher than previously thought over the longer term
- Adam Antoniak
- James Knightley
- James Smith
- Lynn Song
- Min Joo Kang
- Muhammet Mercan
- Nicky Mapa
- Rob Carnell
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