reports
- Carsten Brzeski
Potential Lagarde exit fuels ECB succession talk
Speculation is once again mounting that Christine Lagarde could potentially make an early exit from her position as ECB President. How much substance lies behind these rumours remains to be seen. What we do know, however, is that it will rekindle discussions between European governments on how the next round of vacancies should be divided
- James Smith
- Frantisek Taborsky
- Peter Virovacz
National Bank of Hungary preview: It begins now!
While the National Bank of Hungary tends to err on the side of caution, we believe that all the boxes have now been ticked and that we are heading into a rate-setting meeting that will deliver the first rate cut since September 2024. This won't be a one-off move, and we anticipate further easing during this year
- Frantisek Taborsky
- Peter Virovacz
National Bank of Hungary preview: It begins now!
While the National Bank of Hungary tends to err on the side of caution, we believe that all the boxes have now been ticked and that we are heading into a rate-setting meeting that will deliver the first rate cut since September 2024. This won't be a one-off move, and we anticipate further easing during this year
- James Smith
UK jobs report keeps Bank of England on track for March rate cut
The UK jobs market is still cooling, even if much of the weakness is concentrated in consumer-facing industries that were most affected by last year's government policy changes. Wage growth has further to fall, and that's why we expect Bank of England rate cuts in March and June – and we don't rule out further moves thereafter
- Adam Antoniak
- Bert Colijn
- James Smith
THINK Ahead: Green shoots or just weeds? What this week's data signals
Spring may be approaching (even if the cold weather outside says otherwise). 'Green shoots' are once again poking through in the global economy. But which ones will flourish and which will turn to weeds? James Smith sorts optimism from overgrowth in the US jobs market, Germany, and even rainy Britain – all in your guide to the week ahead
- Bert Colijn
- Carsten Brzeski
Europe shows its cards
Today, EU leaders met with Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta in a castle in Belgium, only a stone's throw away from Maastricht, where one of the most ambitious steps of European integration was decided in 1992. Leaders remained far from taking a similar step towards integration today, but the meeting nevertheless brought some hope
- Peter Virovacz
- Zoltán Homolya
Why we can't ignore Hungary's rate cut-triggering low inflation
Inflation in Hungary came in as expected in January, well below the central bank's target level. The favourable trend continued in the pattern of monthly repricing. The structure also shows some improvement, so the chance of a February rate cut is higher than ever
- James Smith
- James Knightley
Decent January for US jobs, but the sector concentration is a huge con...
The US added more jobs than expected in January, but sizeable downward revisions reveal that – outside of leisure & hospitality, private healthcare, and government – the economy has actually been consistently losing jobs. This suggests the risks remain tilted toward the Fed cutting rates more than the two reductions currently in our forecast
- Chris Turner
- David Havrlant
- Deepali Bhargava
- Dmitry Dolgin
- Francesco Pesole
- Lynn Song
- Mateusz Sutowicz
- Min Joo Kang
- Peter Virovacz
- Rafal Benecki
- Valentin Tataru
FX Talking: Dollar appetite erodes
Two central themes are driving FX markets. The first is rare optimism on global growth, which has seen the commodity bloc and the procyclical currencies of Europe and Asia outperforming. The second is the erosion of confidence in the dollar – or at least the risk of having all your eggs in one dollar-denominated basket. Expect the dollar to stay pressured
- Frantisek Taborsky
- Peter Virovacz
- Zoltán Homolya
Monitoring Hungary: Heading into the great unknown
In our latest update, we reassess our Hungarian economic and market forecasts at a time when the country is approaching a general election that could bring about significant changes regardless of who wins. We've entered the year with the hope that this will finally mark the end of the prolonged period of stagnation
- Adam Antoniak
- David Havrlant
- James Knightley
- James Smith
- Peter Virovacz
THINK Ahead: Why the Fed's jobs market confidence could prove misplace...
The Fed is becoming more relaxed about the US jobs market. Yet data this week makes that look complacent. And payroll numbers next week will be key. So what's going on beneath the surface? James Smith tells the story in 10 charts as we enter another week dominated by American economic data
- Peter Virovacz
- Zoltán Homolya
Why Hungary's chances of fulfilling its economic potential are growing
December's retail sales and industrial data were disappointing – but we think a potential upturn is closer than ever. Soft data suggests that industry may contribute positively to economic growth, while retail sales could pick up the pace in terms of growth in 2026
- Carsten Brzeski
- James Knightley
US hiring slowdown points to weaker jobs numbers
An apparent slowdown in hiring suggests the Fed may have acted a little prematurely in downplaying the risks to the jobs aspect of its mandate at the January FOMC meeting. Major downward revisions to payrolls next week would add to the pressure to eventually resume rate cuts
- Carsten Brzeski
- Carsten Brzeski
- Chris Turner
- James Smith
Bank of England decision boosts chances of a March rate cut
Another heavily divided Bank of England decision lowers the bar for a rate cut next month. So long as the data continues to follow recent trends – weaker employment, lower wage growth, easing inflation – then we think a March cut is likely to be followed by another in June
- James Smith
Bank of England decision boosts chances of a March rate cut
Another heavily divided Bank of England decision lowers the bar for a rate cut next month. So long as the data continues to follow recent trends – weaker employment, lower wage growth, easing inflation – then we think a March cut is likely to be followed by another in June
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