reports
- Bert Colijn
- Carsten Brzeski
Europe shows its cards
Today, EU leaders met with Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta in a castle in Belgium, only a stone's throw away from Maastricht, where one of the most ambitious steps of European integration was decided in 1992. Leaders remained far from taking a similar step towards integration today, but the meeting nevertheless brought some hope
- James Smith
- James Knightley
Decent January for US jobs, but the sector concentration is a huge con...
The US added more jobs than expected in January, but sizeable downward revisions reveal that – outside of leisure & hospitality, private healthcare, and government – the economy has actually been consistently losing jobs. This suggests the risks remain tilted toward the Fed cutting rates more than the two reductions currently in our forecast
- Adam Antoniak
- David Havrlant
- James Knightley
- James Smith
- Peter Virovacz
THINK Ahead: Why the Fed's jobs market confidence could prove misplace...
The Fed is becoming more relaxed about the US jobs market. Yet data this week makes that look complacent. And payroll numbers next week will be key. So what's going on beneath the surface? James Smith tells the story in 10 charts as we enter another week dominated by American economic data
- James Knightley
US hiring slowdown points to weaker jobs numbers
An apparent slowdown in hiring suggests the Fed may have acted a little prematurely in downplaying the risks to the jobs aspect of its mandate at the January FOMC meeting. Major downward revisions to payrolls next week would add to the pressure to eventually resume rate cuts
- Chris Turner
- James Smith
Bank of England decision boosts chances of a March rate cut
Another heavily divided Bank of England decision lowers the bar for a rate cut next month. So long as the data continues to follow recent trends – weaker employment, lower wage growth, easing inflation – then we think a March cut is likely to be followed by another in June
- James Smith
Bank of England decision boosts chances of a March rate cut
Another heavily divided Bank of England decision lowers the bar for a rate cut next month. So long as the data continues to follow recent trends – weaker employment, lower wage growth, easing inflation – then we think a March cut is likely to be followed by another in June
- James Smith
- Bert Colijn
Eurozone inflation drops well below target ahead of ECB rate decision
The drop to 1.7% from 2% in January was expected, although core inflation did come in softer than foreseen at 2.2%. While we don't expect a cut, this will add fuel to the more dovish debates around the table at the European Central Bank's governing council meeting
- Bert Colijn
- James Smith
Cautious Bank of England poised to keep rates on hold despite hiring w...
UK hiring conditions are weak and pay growth is slowing rapidly. But with headline inflation above 3% and the memories of the 2022 price spike still fresh, we expect the Bank to keep rates on hold this Thursday and keep its options open. We still expect a rate cut in March
- Bert Colijn
- Marieke Blom
- Bert Colijn
- David Havrlant
- Dmitry Dolgin
- James Knightley
- James Smith
- Leszek Kasek
- Muhammet Mercan
- Peter Virovacz
THINK Ahead: When a good place turns bad
Central banks from Washington to Frankfurt are telling us they're in a good place. And they have a point, even if that seems wildly at odds with *gestures at everything going on in the world*. Read on for James Smith's look at what could drag policymakers out of their happy place this year as the team looks ahead to another big week in markets
- Carsten Brzeski
- Charlotte de Montpellier
- Chris Turner
- David Havrlant
- Deepali Bhargava
- Dmitry Dolgin
- Frantisek Taborsky
- Franziska Biehl
- James Knightley
- James Smith
- Leszek Kasek
- Lynn Song
- Marcel Klok
- Min Joo Kang
- Padhraic Garvey
- CFA
- Paolo Pizzoli
- Peter Vanden Houte
- Peter Virovacz
- Philippe Ledent
- Ruben Dewitte
- Valentin Tataru
- Warren Patterson
ING Monthly: Europe's Arnold moment – why strategy over spectacle matt...
The first month of 2026 has confirmed we've entered a new era of political muscle flexing. Europe may have signalled strength in the face of geopolitical tensions lately, but does it have a clear-cut strategy to back it up? As we've learnt from our friend Arnold, flexing without a plan is just posturing
- Bert Colijn
Eurozone GDP growth held steady in the fourth quarter as outlook impro...
The eurozone economy ended 2025 with decent economic growth despite large uncertainty and economic tension. For 2026, the mood is becoming more upbeat as investment plans should result in a modest cyclical improvement, but beware of structural concerns
- Chris Turner
- James Knightley
- Padhraic Garvey
- CFA
Fed holds rates steady at the top of the neutral range
The Fed left monetary policy unchanged in a range between 3.5% and 3.75%, but the accompanying statement and press conference suggested the Fed is more confident that the policy easing cycle is close to a conclusion. Treasury yields and the dollar have received some support from this, but there will be more tests to come
- Chris Turner
- James Knightley
- Padhraic Garvey
- CFA
Fed holds rates steady at the top of the neutral range
The Fed left monetary policy unchanged in a range between 3.5% and 3.75%, but the accompanying statement and press conference suggested the Fed is more confident that the policy easing cycle is close to a conclusion. Treasury yields and the dollar have received some support from this, but there will be more tests to come
- Chris Turner
- James Knightley
- Padhraic Garvey
- CFA
Fed holds rates steady at the top of the neutral range
The Fed left monetary policy unchanged in a range between 3.5% and 3.75%, but the accompanying statement and press conference suggested the Fed is more confident that the policy easing cycle is close to a conclusion. Treasury yields and the dollar have received some support from this, but there will be more tests to come
- Francesco Pesole
- James Knightley
Bank of Canada keeps rates unchanged, and options open
The BoC kept rates at 2.25% as widely expected today. Despite major uncertainty, the bank remains explicitly content with this rate level, and we don't currently forecast any change by year-end. However, options remain open, and the risks appear slightly on the dovish side. We see upside potential for USD/CAD
- Francesco Pesole
- James Knightley
Bank of Canada keeps rates unchanged, and options open
The BoC kept rates at 2.25% as widely expected today. Despite major uncertainty, the bank remains explicitly content with this rate level, and we don't currently forecast any change by year-end. However, options remain open, and the risks appear slightly on the dovish side. We see upside potential for USD/CAD
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