There was weakness in credit markets early last week, with a weaker macro tone as spreads came off the tight levels and flows were negative with outflows of 0.1% of AuM. Supply was still active last week, with €6bn in corporate supply and €8bn in financial supply (€5.5bn in covered bonds and €2bn in bank senior bonds). Despite the weaker sentiment, new issues still saw strong demand and very low NIPs.
Spreads remained unchanged to a touch tighter on the week, with no major moves yet this morning following a week of two halves and a busy weekend in the geopolitical arena. Spreads were initially constructive last week but weakness set in later in the week following the higher than expected CPI print, resulting in an uptick in rates. There were also growing geopolitical concerns. Credit is now stable in a rather quiet market as we enter wait-and-see mode.
Sovereigns made for a strong start to Govie and SSA sustainable supply for 2024. Sustainable covered bond supply is ahead of last year while ESG issuance in non-covered financials fell short of last year in 1Q23. We expect banks to make a stronger shift back towards the unsecured segment for their ESG supply. The first quarter of 2024 marked a busy period for corporates ESG supply with the utilities sector leading issuance on the back of capex financing needs. With c.€39bn, corporates issuance a...
There was strong performance in credit last week on the back of strong economic data, a slowdown in primary market activity, continued inflows (0.2% of AuM inflowing) and a rise in yields due to a small sell-off in rates. Supply was only €5bn for corporates and €2.5bn for financials, leaving cash to be put to work in secondary. Corporates outperformed financials with 5-6bp tightening last week versus just 4bp on average for financials.
Fluvius[de] published its 2023 annual report last week. The Belgian utility's indebtedness grew significantly last year with the issuance of new bonds on the institutional and retail markets for a total of €1,440m. Despite regulated remuneration enhanced by the inflation correction, Fluvius' operating income and funds from operations were negatively impacted by lower volumes. The company's credit metrics deteriorated in 2023, reaching the very bottom of Moody's requirements to maintain the A3 cr...
Corporate supply came to US$80bn in March, lower than the significant €139bn of the previous month. It is also lower than the amounts seen in previous years (US$125-190bn), except for last year (US$68bn). Redemptions were relatively high in March at US$63bn, resulting in US$17bn net supply.
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