reports
- Jean Danjou
EssilorLuxottica : Beyond the negative forex effects, solid growth and...
>Growth above 5% in Q1 on cc but negative forex effect reaches 250bp - The group reported Q1 growth of +3% or +5.5% on cc for sales of € 6.335bn. We forecast € 6.346bn reflecting y-o-y growth of 3.2% and 4.7% on cc, while the FactSet consensus saw sales of € 6.394bn with similar growth on cc. The pace of growth on cc weakened only slightly relative to the level of just above 6% seen in H2 2023 and despite a tough comparison base (two-year growth at over 20% in Q1 20...
- Jean Danjou
EssilorLuxottica : Au-delà d’effets changes négatifs, une croissance s...
>Croissance au-dessus de 5% au T1 à tcc mais l’effet changes négatif atteint 250 pb - La croissance publiée par le groupe au titre du T1 s’élève à +3% soit +5.5% à tcc pour un CA à 6335 M€. Nous tablions sur 6346 M€ reflétant une croissance y/y de 3.2% et de 4.7% à tcc , le consensus FactSet montrait un CA à 6394 M€ avec une croissance à tcc similaire. Le rythme de croissance à tcc ne s’affaiblit que légèrement par rapport au niveau lég. au-dessus de 6% observé sur ...
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : March down in double digit leads to a -6.3% decline in Q1 for S...
>Swiss watch exports: March down -16.1% leads to a Q1 at -6.3% y-o-y (luxury category also negative over the quarter at -2.8%) - - Over March 2024, exports amounted to CHF 2,002m down 16.1% y-o-y after -3.6% in February and +3.1% in January. This is a very weak figure but was obviously impacted to a good extent by a negative working days effect. On the whole, Q1 was down -6.3% (as a reminder: Q4 2023 witnessed +4.7% growth, FY 2023 growth ended at +7.6%). The l...
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : March down in double digit leads to a -6.3% decline in Q1 for S...
>Swiss watch exports: March down -16.1% leads to a Q1 at -6.3% y-o-y (luxury category also negative over the quarter at -2.8%) - - Over March 2024, exports amounted to CHF 2,002m down 16.1% y-o-y after -3.6% in February and +3.1% in January. This is a very weak figure but was obviously impacted to a good extent by a negative working days effect. On the whole, Q1 was down -6.3% (as a reminder: Q4 2023 witnessed +4.7% growth, FY 2023 growth ended at +7.6%). The l...
- Jean Danjou
Brunello Cucinelli : Momentum still impressive in Q1, roadmap unchange...
>Growth remained brisk in Q1 at +17.9% cc, no real deceleration vs end-2023 - The group reported cc growth of 17.9% in Q1 or reported sales of € 309.1m. We forecast € 303m or cc growth of 14.7% and the pre-announcement FactSet consensus was more optimistic at € 308m; the numbers thus beat already optimistic expectations. Growth y-o-y at cc in Q4 2023 came in at 19.5%: the deceleration looks therefore very modest in sequential terms. In reported terms (after integrati...
- Jean Danjou
Brunello Cucinelli : Momentum toujours remarquable au T1, plan de marc...
>La croissance reste vive au T1 à +17.9% tcc, pas vraiment de décélération par rapport à la fin de 2023 - Le groupe publie une croissance de à tcc de 17.9% sur le T1 soit un CA publié à 309.1 M€. Nous attendions 303 M€ soit une croissance à tcc de 14.7% et le consensus FactSet avant publication était plus optimiste à 308 M€, la publication parvient donc à excéder des attentes déjà optimistes. La croissance y/y à tcc au T4 2023 s’affichait à 19.5%, la décélération est ...
- Jean Danjou
LVMH : What’s surprising about Q1 is the lack of any real surprises
>Organic growth in the quarter reflects the slowdown that was expected - Compared to H2 2023 when it was close to 10%, the group’s organic growth slowed to +3% for Q1 2024, with reported sales of € 20.694bn (reported growth of -2%). We had expected organic growth of +2.8% based on sales of € 20.88bn and the pre-announcement Factset consensus showed a sales estimate of close to € 21.029bn. Depending on forex and scope effects, the release is in line. Indeed, there is ...
- Jean Danjou
LVMH : La surprise du T1, c’est l’absence de vraies surprises
> La croissance organique sur le trimestre reflète le ralentissement qui était anticipé - Après un second semestre 2023 où elle s’affichait proche de 10%, la croissance organique du groupe ralentit à +3% pour le T1 2024 avec un CA publié à 20 694 M€ (croissance en publié à -2%). Nous attendions une croissance organique de 2.8% sur la base d’un CA de 20 880 M€ et le consensus FactSet avant publication faisait ressortir une estimation de CA voisine à 21 029 M€. Aux chan...
- Baptiste Salaville
- Bruno Cavalier
- Jean Danjou
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 15/04/2024
The logistics market is our preferred real estate segment, where the coming growth remains undervalued. We prefer the high growth stock within this segment, CTP. We also have Outperform recommendations on Argan, Montea and VGP. We believe WDP is fully valued, though. - ...
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
SW SODEXO SA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
BC8 BECHTLE AG
ELI ELIA GROUP SA/NV
MONC MONCLER SPA
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
SAP SAP SE
- Baptiste Salaville
- Bruno Cavalier
- Jean Danjou
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/15/2024
The logistics market is our preferred real estate segment, where the coming growth remains undervalued. We prefer the high growth stock within this segment, CTP. We also have Outperform recommendations on Argan, Montea and VGP. We believe WDP is fully valued, though. - ...
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
SW SODEXO SA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
BC8 BECHTLE AG
ELI ELIA GROUP SA/NV
MONC MONCLER SPA
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
SAP SAP SE
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : Monday review – Luxury sector
>Topic of the week: no party planned this earnings season - If the most recent trends for luxury stocks are to be taken seriously, expectations related to the coming Q1 earnings season must have been seriously downgraded over the last weeks. The sector as a whole now witnesses a YTD gain below 10% and modestly above the one visible on the Stoxx 600; Hermès aside, it is trading at a discount versus pre-Covid. If a few franchises with above average brand momentum and/or...
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : Monday review – Luxury sector
>Topic of the week: no party planned this earnings season - If the most recent trends for luxury stocks are to be taken seriously, expectations related to the coming Q1 earnings season must have been seriously downgraded over the last weeks. The sector as a whole now witnesses a YTD gain below 10% and modestly above the one visible on the Stoxx 600; Hermès aside, it is trading at a discount versus pre-Covid. If a few franchises with above average brand momentum and/or...
- Jean Danjou
Hermes International : No concerns on the start of the year but therea...
>Q1 growth should remain in the double-digits in most zones, buoyed by the price hikes introduced since the beginning of the year - We still think that the group should report organic growth that is still firmly in the double digits. Aside from the momentum specific to the brand and the greater resilience of high-end luxury spending, the activity should above all benefit from the price increases, introduced since January, of +8-9% on average with adjustments by zon...
- Jean Danjou
Hermès International : Pas d’inquiétudes sur le début d’année mais nos...
>La croissance au T1 devrait rester à deux chiffres dans la plupart des zones, portée par la hausse de prix passée dès le début d’année - Nous persistons à penser que le groupe devrait afficher au T1 une croissance organique toujours solidement à deux chiffres. Au-delà du momentum propre à la marque et de la meilleure résistance de la dépense luxe de haut de gamme, l’activité bénéficie surtout de la hausse de prix passée dès janvier de +8/9% en moyenne, avec une mod...
- Emira Sagaama
- Jean Danjou
Brunello Cucinelli : Exclusive and attractive
Brunello Cucinelli’s stock offers investors a rare opportunity to benefit from sustainable and steady growth in high-end luxury thanks to its exclusive positioning, distinctive style and significant potential in Asia. We are initiating coverage with an Outperform rating and a target price of € 110, as the stock is one of the few in the sector with residual upside. - >Exclusive and original: a unique franchise in high-end ready-to-wear - From cashmere jumpers to metic...
- Emira Sagaama
- Jean Danjou
Brunello Cucinelli : Exclusif et attractif
Le titre Brunello Cucinelli offre aux investisseurs une des rares opportunités de bénéficier de la croissance soutenue et régulière du luxe haut de gamme de par son positionnement exclusif, son empreinte stylistique distinctive et son potentiel de développement important en Asie. Nous initions avec une opinion Surperformance sur la base d’un OC à 110 €, le titre étant parmi les rares du secteur sur lequel nous pouvons encore tabler sur une revalorisation. - >Une franchise...
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : Monday review – Luxury sector
>Topic of the week: let’s talk about prices - Above trend rises in unit prices have been a visible feature of the post-Covid strong revenue growth posted by the luxury industry at large. Historically, the annual growth of the sector runs at +8%/+10% on average with volume, price and mix contributing more or less equally but the post-Covid economic backdrop has allowed a faster pace of annual price rises: we estimate that the average price inflation ended up close to h...
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : Monday review – Luxury sector
>Topic of the week: let’s talk about prices - Above trend rises in unit prices have been a visible feature of the post-Covid strong revenue growth posted by the luxury industry at large. Historically, the annual growth of the sector runs at +8%/+10% on average with volume, price and mix contributing more or less equally but the post-Covid economic backdrop has allowed a faster pace of annual price rises: we estimate that the average price inflation ended up close to h...
- Jean Danjou
EssilorLuxottica : Perspective de croissance prometteuse, cas d’invest...
>Un cas d’investissement qui se renforce sensiblement, OC relevé à 225 € - Nous prenons l’opportunité du compte rendu de notre contact société de fin de trimestre pour revisiter dans un sens plus favorable le cas d’investissement et remontons en conséquence notre OC de 204 € à 225 € (opinion Surperformance réitérée). Nous pensons que la perspective de croissance structurelle du groupe devient plus favorable à la faveur d’une gestion dynamique du portefeuille produits ...
- Jean Danjou
EssilorLuxottica : Promising growth prospects, investment case strengt...
>An investment case that is significantly strengthened, target price raised to €225 - We take the opportunity of the feedback from our quarter-end company contact to revisit by ourselves the investment case in a more favourable way and have, as a result, raised our target price from € 204 to € 225 (Outperform rating reiterated). We think that the group's structural growth outlook is becoming more favourable as a result of the active management of the product portfolio...
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