reports
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – Graphisoft Park: 2Q19 – steady as she goes
Graphisoft Park published its 1H19 results yesterday (7 August), after the market closed. The company posted another steady set of figures. The NAV was flat qoq, at EUR 18.8/share, translating into a P/NAV of only 0.71x, even after the recent rally. The FFO, according to our reconciliation, reached EUR 2.8m in 2Q19. This means that, during the first six months, the company reached FFO of EUR 5.9m, some 53% of our full-year forecast (which would imply an 8.2% FFO yield). The solid delivery was un...
- Jakub Caithaml
- Research Team
CEE Real Estate: There's hope for you yet (Atrium, CA Immo, Dom, Echo,...
If you are not invested in CEE real estate, do not despair – it is not too late. We remain constructive on the sector. The CEE economies are likely to stay among the fastest growing in Europe for at least the next two years, in our view. At the same time, ECB policy is likely to remain accommodative in the near term, and no EUR rate hikes appear likely in the foreseeable future. We believe that, in such an environment – fast GDP growth, underpinned by low rates – real estate should thrive.
GWI GLOBALWORTH REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS LIMITED
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
SPI S IMMO AG
GTC GLOBE TRADE CENTRE S.A.
DOM DOM DEVELOPMENT SA
WXF WARIMPEX FINANZ UND BETEILIGUNG
ECH ECHO INVESTMENT
GSPARK GRAPHISOFT PARK SE
19XX NEPI ROCKCASTLE PLC
IIA IMMOFINANZ AG
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – Grivalia: discontinuation of coverage
Following absorption by Eurobank, we are terminating our coverage of Grivalia. The stock has returned 58% since we upgraded the company to a BUY in November last year. We caution against using the forecasts, ratings and price target guidance issued previously on the stock.
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – Graphisoft Park: solid 1Q19 results, FFO up 30% yoy
Graphisoft Park reported a solid set of 1Q19 earnings yesterday evening (8 May), with the FFO some 30% higher yoy. At a sub-6% yield, the valuation of the portfolio remains relatively stretched. That said, the leasing demand is still strong in Budapest offices, and there is upward pressure on rents evident throughout the city. At the same time, the investment demand remains strong, and yields are tight. As such, the gap between our perception of the value of the portfolio and the actual reported...
- Alex Boulougouris
- CFA
- Jakub Caithaml
Echo Investment: Turn on, Tune in, Hold on (downgraded to HOLD)
After a difficult 2018, Echo has experienced a fantastic run in the year to-date. Floating on waves of positivity, the stock is up nearly 40% from the late-December lows, and 20% above the placement in autumn 2017 (on a total return basis). Thanks to its internal development team and the resources to undertake large, multi-use projects, Echo should be able to generate better margins than most of its peers, in our view. The apartment prices in Poland, while on the up, are still significantly chea...
- Jakub Caithaml
- Jakub Caithaml
- Stefan Lungu
- CFA
Globalworth: No sleeping on laurels (upgraded to BUY)
Globalworth’s portfolio has more than doubled in the past 18 months, growing from EUR 940m in mid-2017 to over EUR 2.0bn currently. In addition, management still sees further growth opportunities. Apart from the developments under way in Romania, Globalworth has secured exclusivity for EUR 280m of acquisitions in Poland, with a blended yield of over 7.5%. To finance the expansion, management announced the intention to raise an additional EUR 500m of equity. This would improve scale (a lower sh...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – Graphisoft Park: 4Q18 results - FFO in line for the yea...
Graphisoft Park reported its 2018 earnings yesterday, after the market closed, posting EUR 9.9m of FFO I, in line with our estimate of EUR 9.8m. This translates into an FFO yield of 9.0%, among the highest in our coverage universe. The management has proposed a dividend of EUR 0.40/share from the 2018E profit (3.7% yield), significantly exceeding our estimate of EUR 0.31/share. The occupancy of the 82k sqm gross leasable area (GLA) portfolio remains at 95%, unchanged from the previous quarter. T...
- Alex Boulougouris
- CFA
- Jakub Caithaml
Wizz Air: There are two kinds of carriers in this world… (HOLD - tra...
…those with loaded guns and those who dig, as Clint Eastwood lays out in his captivating performance in Sergio Leone’s classic. Using its low costs to intimidate rivals, while benefitting from its exposure to the fast-growing CEE markets, Wizz Air strikes us as one of the most attractive equity stories in the CEE universe over the mid- to long-term. However, we see several potential headwinds in the near term, including the risk of overcapacity, economic slowdown, USD strength and an elevate...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – Immofinanz: 3Q18 – a weak quarter; looking ahead, we ...
Immofinanz has reported what we perceive as relatively weak 3Q18 numbers. Going forward, we believe the focal point should be the evolution of the margin on income from asset management. The strong result that Immofinanz reached in 2Q18 appears to signal that, once done with the refurbishment programme, Immofinanz might see a tangible margin expansion. In our latest update (CEE_Real Estate_IIA Update_SPI Initiation_27Jun2018.pdf), we assumed that the margin on income from asset management should...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – Echo Investment: 3Q18 – a decent quarter; Brewery J p...
Echo has reported a set of decent 3Q18 figures. However, we do not expect the results to drive the share price. We expect the market to continue to scrutinise cost control closely, on both the project (capex) and group (overheads) levels. Even more importantly, we expect the market to be fixated on refinancing. Several weeks ago, Echo placed 5Y bonds to individual investors at PLN 50m, with a 340bps margin over 6M WIBOR. Whether or not management succeeds in issuing new debt (to finance land acq...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – S Immo: 3Q18 – excellent results, exceeding both our ...
S Immo has delivered a strong set of 3Q18 results, beating our estimates on both the recurring lines and the revaluation result. At EUR 19.2/share, the EPRA NAV is already higher than the level we forecast for the 2018E year-end, valuing S Immo at 0.79x P/NAV. For 9M18, the FFO reached c.EUR 50m, based on our reconciliation. As such, we believe the company is well on track to exceed our full-year FFO estimate of EUR 56m (which implies a 5.6% 2018E FFO yield). As our estimates are the highest on ...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – NEPI Rockcastle: 9M18 – NRI lagging our expectations,...
NEPI Rockcastle (NRP) published a business update for 9M18 yesterday (26 November). The net rental income is lagging our expectations, which may lead us to adjust our FFO forecast down by around 5-10% for the year, which would bring it broadly in line with NRP’s guidance (the company reiterated that it expects the distributable earnings for 2018E to stand about 10% above last year’s result of EUR 0.48/share, which implies a 2018E result of c.EUR 0.53/share). The rest of the results were enco...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – Grivalia: to merge with Eurobank; 15.8x ratio implies c...
We turned positive on Grivalia recently (Greece_Real Estate_Grivalia_Upgraded to BUY_13Nov2018.pdf): following the recent correction, we viewed the company as an attractive defensive play on the Greek recovery. Instead, Grivalia’s minority shareholders are now likely to end up with shares in a bank, a significantly higher beta investment. Even though Eurobank rebounded in this morning’s trading (at the pixel time, the stock traded at EUR 0.50/share, up from Friday’s close of EUR 0.47/share...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – CA Immo: 3Q18 – another strong quarter, FFO I exceeds...
CA Immo has reported another set of strong results. The FFO exceeded our and the consensus estimates by 10 and 6%, respectively. For 9M18, the FFO I (pre-tax) stood at EUR 93.7m, up 11% yoy. CA Immo is thus well on track to reach its FY18E guidance of at least EUR 115m, and exceed our 2018E FFO I forecast of EUR 111m, in our view. The results were boosted by a EUR 44m revaluation gain, driven predominantly by gains in Austria, related to a 14k sqm GLA rental agreement that CA Immo signed with Vo...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – GTC: CEO suggests Lone Star should not sell below EPRA ...
In an interview with Bloomberg, GTC's CEO Thomas Kurzmann has said that Lone Star is in talks with two final bidders, suggesting that Lone Star should not sell its 62% stake in GTC at a price below the 3Q18 EPRA NAV (EUR 2.37/share, or c.PLN 10.17/share). This is in line with our view: we believe GTC is significantly undervalued at current levels; all the more so, as the 9M18 results showed that the company is en route to exceed our 2018E FFO estimate, in our view. If we annualise the 9M18 FFO, ...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – Atrium: 3Q18 – rental income and FFO spot on our esti...
We expect Atrium to benefit from a lower cost of debt (the result of the recent refinancing exercise), and better-quality buildings (the result of the ongoing portfolio repositioning), which should translate into higher achievable like-for-like growth in CEE going forward, in our view. Combined with lower overheads, driven by lower legal costs and general cost-cutting initiatives, this should drive c.4% annual FFO I growth over 2017-21E, on our estimates. We see Atrium generating around 6-7% FFO...
- Alex Boulougouris
- CFA
- Jakub Caithaml
Grivalia: Defensive play on Greek recovery (upgraded to BUY)
As a part of a broader Greek sell-off, Grivalia’s shares have lost over 20% since their peak in January, are down 16% ytd and are trading at the lowest levels since the end of 2016. We believe the weakness has created a compelling entry opportunity into a quality, low beta play on the Greek recovery. Grivalia’s low leverage (12% net LTV) offers substantial room for debt-financed expansion, which should drive top-line growth and ROE improvement, in our view. With 95% occupancy and a 9.7Y weig...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – Graphisoft Park: 3Q18 — strong top-line growth, drive...
Graphisoft Park reported its 3Q18 results yesterday (6 November), recording strong top line growth. The rental income was up 31% yoy, driven by the delivery of the new premises in the southern area of the park, where the company has completed c.14k sqm of new office space since the start of the year (c.10k sqm of this has been leased out already, while most of the remaining space is covered already by preliminary rental contracts, according to the report). The rental income exceeded our estimate...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – Echo Investment: sells last tranche of EPP shares, but ...
Yesterday (5 November), Echo Investment announced that the company has concluded the sale of the EPP shares, selling the remaining 15.3m shares for EUR 17.1m (EUR 1.12/share). We believe this is positive. However, management has recently struck a more cautious tone regarding the special dividend, as the raising of new debt has become more difficult in Poland recently. While we believe this does not mean that the special dividend is off the table altogether, if management does not succeed in issu...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.