reports
- Bert Colijn
- Jakub Rybacki
- Jakub Seidler
- James Knightley
- James Smith
- Muhammet Mercan
- Peter Virovacz
- Prakash Sakpal
- Valentin Tataru
- James Knightley
- Carsten Brzeski
- Chris Turner
- Iris Pang
- James Knightley
- James Smith
- Mark Cliffe
- Padhraic Garvey
- CFA
- Raoul Leering
- Rob Carnell
September Economic Update: Getting real on “no dealâ€
The real-world impact of the failure of politicians to agree on cross-border ‘deals' is becoming obvious. Financial markets don't like it, and investors are shifting into safe havens. With business confidence sagging, pressure is on for politicians to get deals done. Read more in our latest economic update
- James Knightley
- James Knightley
- James Knightley
- James Knightley
US: The rising risk of recession
The US ISM manufacturing index has historically been one of the best lead economic indicators and the fact all the main components are now in contraction territory is a major cause for concern. With new tariffs coming into effect and the global backdrop continuing to weaken the threat of a recession is rising, which will force the Fed into further rate cuts
- Francesco Pesole
- James Knightley
Canada: We're looking for a rate cut in October
Canada's economy performed well in 2Q19, but it is heavily exposed to global growth and trade, which hints at weaker activity ahead. The central bank has acted swiftly before and we think they could use next week's meeting to lay the groundwork for an October interest rate cut. CAD is likely to stay on the back foot, but the long-term outlook remains positive
- Dmitry Dolgin
- Jakub Seidler
- James Knightley
- James Smith
- Muhammet Mercan
- Peter Virovacz
- Prakash Sakpal
- James Knightley
- Jakub Rybacki
- James Knightley
- Prakash Sakpal
- James Knightley
- James Knightley
- James Knightley
- Bert Colijn
- Jakub Rybacki
- Jakub Seidler
- James Knightley
- James Smith
- Peter Virovacz
- Prakash Sakpal
- Valentin Tataru
- James Knightley
President Trump and the Fed - we've changed our view
President Trump is ratcheting up the pressure on the Fed to support his efforts on extracting concessions from China on trade. Policymakers appear reluctant, but market moves and other central bank actions look set to give them a nudge. This is why we think it looks increasingly likely that the Fed will step in with two 25bp cuts in September and December
- James Knightley
The US economy is slowing, but the Fed needn't worry
US GDP growth looks set to have slowed sharply in the second quarter of this year to 1.8% from 3.1% in1Q19. However, this reflects trade and inventory idiosyncrasies. It is not a broader deceleration that would warrant an aggressive Federal Reserve response
- James Knightley
- Bert Colijn
- Dmitry Dolgin
- James Knightley
- James Smith
- Muhammet Mercan
- Peter Virovacz
- Prakash Sakpal
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