The real-world impact of the failure of politicians to agree on cross-border ‘deals' is becoming obvious. Financial markets don't like it, and investors are shifting into safe havens. With business confidence sagging, pressure is on for politicians to get deals done. Read more in our latest economic update
We expect the CBT to cut its policy rate by 175bp to 18% for the next MPC meeting on September 12 on the back of a faster than expected recovery in the inflation outlook and ongoing improvement trends in inflation expectations. The continuation of the easing cycle is also supported by improving external financial conditions
The regaining of its investment grade status from S&P and Fitch, an almost done deal on ERM-II admission next year, still strong growth and targeted tax reforms have all contributed to make 2019 arguably the best post-crisis year for Croatia. Looking ahead, confidence is still running high among consumers and businesses but the external demand will remain a drag. Needless to say, 2019 was another banner year for the Croatian tourism sector.
A UK election now looks inevitable - the only question now is 'when'. However, the chances of a 'no deal' Brexit on 31 October appear to have receded, but there are still ways it could happen, and given the outcome of an election looks deeply uncertain, despite the Conservatives' lead in the polls, the rebound in sterling is unlikely to have legs
Czech retails sales accelerated to 7% YoY. However, this figure is flattered by a higher number of working days, so we can say that domestic retail sales are growing around 5% this year. That's a similar pace to the last two years and double what we see in the wider EU
With Brexit uncertainty causing investment to decline, service sector activity has slowed as new orders become scarce. A lot will hinge on the events today in Westminster, but the bottom line is that risk of a 'no deal' Brexit on 31 October is unlikely to fade completely after this week. This will continue to keep the pressure on underlying growth
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