We downgrade TKO to Neutral ahead of Thursday’s strategic update. We expect management to revise mid term targets, potentially implying mid to high single digit downside to current consensus forecasts. We set a new target price of € 17.5.
In the run-up to the publication of results, attention is focused on signs of a reversal in momentum. We are more concerned about the balance sheet situation. Its deterioration is underestimated and could trigger dividend cuts but, more significantly, strategic adjustments. The quest for premiumisation has undoubtedly overlooked capital intensity. We maintain our preference for quality with Diageo (Outperform, target price 2,400p). Campari upgraded to Neutral (target price € 6.6 vs € 4.2) for it...
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