FX will be dominated by two key themes over coming months. The first is the prospect of Marine Le Pen's RN party coming to government and setting Paris on a collision course with Brussels over France's debt trajectory. The second are welcome signs of US disinflation, which will give the Federal Reserve enough confidence to start cutting rates in September
A busy week ahead for Asia should see the Reserve Bank of India pausing alongside trade data set for release in China, Taiwan and South Korea. The focus also shifts to Australia's GDP report, Japan's labour cash earnings and inflation out from Taiwan, Indonesia and the Philippines
Switzerland and Sweden have already cut rates this year. The eurozone and the UK look set to follow shortly. And the Fed eagerly awaits the starting pistol on its easing cycle – if only the data would allow. ING's call is that US price and activity data will allow the Fed to start cutting in September. We see some modest downside to the dollar ahead of November
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